@article{Feltham2015-sj,

title = {Arctic sea ice reduction: the evidence, models and impacts},

author = {Danny Feltham},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-07-01},

journal = {Philos. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci.},

volume = {373},

number = {2045},

pages = {20140171},

publisher = {The Royal Society},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Serreze2015-pl,

title = {Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal 

 ice forecasting},

author = {Mark C Serreze and Julienne Stroeve},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-07-01},

journal = {Philos. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci.},

volume = {373},

number = {2045},

pages = {20140159},

publisher = {The Royal Society},

abstract = {September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite 

 observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by 

 pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag 

 autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a 

 combination of thinning and associated processes related to a 

 warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt 

 season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend 

 itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both 

 the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation 

 patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative 

 (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the 

 steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal 

 ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea 

 ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast 

 systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent 

 limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of 

 atmospheric variability.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Boisvert2015-ry,

title = {The Arctic is becoming warmer and wetter as revealed by the 

 Atmospheric Infrared Sounder},

author = {L N Boisvert and J C Stroeve},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-06-01},

journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},

volume = {42},

number = {11},

pages = {4439–4446},

publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},

abstract = {AbstractOver the past decade, the Arctic has seen unprecedented 

 declines in the summer sea ice area, leading to larger and 

 longer exposed open water areas. The Atmospheric Infrared 

 Sounder is a useful yet underutilized tool to study 

 corresponding atmospheric changes and their feedbacks between 

 2003 and 2013. Most pronounced warming occurs between November 

 and April, with skin and air temperatures increasing on average 

 2.5 K and 1.5 K over the Arctic Ocean. In response to sea ice 

 loss, evaporation rates (i.e., moisture flux) increased between 

 August and October by 1.5 $times$ 10−3 g m−2 s−1 (3.8 W m−2 

 latent heat flux energy), increasing the water vapor feedback 

 and cloud cover. Although most trends are positive over the 

 Arctic Ocean, there is considerable interannual variability. 

 Increasing specific humidity in May and corresponding downward 

 moisture fluxes cause earlier melt onset; warming skin 

 temperatures and radiative responses to increased water vapor 

 and cloud cover in autumn delay freeze‐up.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Paul2015-nc,

title = {The glaciers climate change initiative: Methods for creating 

 glacier area, elevation change and velocity products},

author = {Frank Paul and Tobias Bolch and Andreas Kääb and Thomas Nagler and Christopher Nuth and Killian Scharrer and Andrew Shepherd and Tazio Strozzi and Francesca Ticconi and Rakesh Bhambri and Etienne Berthier and Suzanne Bevan and Noel Gourmelen and Torborg Heid and Seongsu Jeong and Matthias Kunz and Tom Rune Lauknes and Adrian Luckman and John Peter Merryman Boncori and Geir Moholdt and Alan Muir and Julia Neelmeijer and Melanie Rankl and Jeffrey VanLooy and Thomas Van Niel},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-06-01},

journal = {Remote Sens. Environ.},

volume = {162},

pages = {408–426},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Glaciers and their changes through time are increasingly 

 obtained from a wide range of satellite sensors. Due to the 

 often remote location of glaciers in inaccessible and 

 high-mountain terrain, satellite observations frequently provide 

 the only available measurements. Furthermore, satellite data 

 provide observations of glacier characteristics that are 

 difficult to monitor using ground-based measurements, thus 

 complementing the latter. In the Glaciers_cci project of the 

 European Space Agency (ESA), three of these characteristics are 

 investigated in detail: glacier area, elevation change and 

 surface velocity. We use (a) data from optical sensors to derive 

 glacier outlines, (b) digital elevation models from at least two 

 points in time, (c) repeat altimetry for determining elevation 

 changes, and (d) data from repeat optical and microwave sensors 

 for calculating surface velocity. For the latter, the two sensor 

 types provide complementary information in terms of 

 spatio-temporal coverage. While (c) and (d) can be generated 

 mostly automatically, (a) and (b) require the intervention of an 

 analyst. Largely based on the results of various round robin 

 experiments (multi-analyst benchmark studies) for each of the 

 products, we suggest and describe the most suitable algorithms 

 for product creation and provide recommendations concerning 

 their practical implementation and the required post-processing. 

 For some of the products (area, velocity) post-processing can 

 influence product quality more than the main-processing 

 algorithm.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Gomez2015-lm,

title = {Laurentide‐Cordilleran Ice Sheet saddle collapse as a 

 contribution to meltwater pulse 1A},

author = {N Gomez and L J Gregoire and J X Mitrovica and A J Payne},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-05-01},

journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},

volume = {42},

number = {10},

pages = {3954–3962},

publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},

abstract = {AbstractThe source or sources of meltwater pulse 1A (MWP‐1A) at 

 ~14.5 ka, recorded at widely distributed sites as a sea level 

 rise of ~10–20 m in less than 500 years, is uncertain. A recent 

 ice modeling study of North America and Greenland has suggested 

 that the collapse of an ice saddle between the Laurentide and 

 Cordilleran ice sheets, with a eustatic sea level equivalent 

 (ESLE) of ~10 m, may have been the dominant contributor to 

 MWP‐1A. To test this suggestion, we predict gravitationally 

 self‐consistent sea level changes from the Last Glacial Maximum 

 to the present day associated with the ice model. We find that a 

 combination of the saddle collapse scenario and melting outside 

 North America and Greenland with an ESLE of ~3 m yields sea 

 level changes across MWP‐1A that are consistent with far‐field 

 sea level records at Barbados, Tahiti, and Sunda Shelf.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Lecomte2015-xc,

title = {Interactions between wind-blown snow redistribution and melt 

 ponds in a coupled ocean–sea ice model},

author = {Olivier Lecomte and Thierry Fichefet and Daniela Flocco and David Schroeder and Martin Vancoppenolle},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-03-01},

journal = {Ocean Model. (Oxf.)},

volume = {87},

pages = {67–80},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Introducing a parameterization of the interactions between 

 wind-driven snow depth changes and melt pond evolution allows us 

 to improve large scale models. In this paper we have implemented 

 an explicit melt pond scheme and, for the first time, a wind 

 dependant snow redistribution model and new snow thermophysics 

 into a coupled ocean–sea ice model.The comparison of long-term 

 mean statistics of melt pond fractions against observations 

 demonstrates realistic melt pond cover on average over Arctic 

 sea ice, but a clear underestimation of the pond coverage on the 

 multi-year ice (MYI) of the western Arctic Ocean. The latter 

 shortcoming originates from the concealing effect of persistent 

 snow on forming ponds, impeding their growth. Analyzing a second 

 simulation with intensified snow drift enables the 

 identification of two distinct modes of sensitivity in the melt 

 pond formation process. First, the larger proportion of 

 wind-transported snow that is lost in leads directly curtails 

 the late spring snow volume on sea ice and facilitates the early 

 development of melt ponds on MYI. In contrast, a combination of 

 higher air temperatures and thinner snow prior to the onset of 

 melting sometimes make the snow cover switch to a regime where 

 it melts entirely and rapidly. In the latter situation, 

 seemingly more frequent on first-year ice (FYI), a smaller snow 

 volume directly relates to a reduced melt pond 

 cover.Notwithstanding, changes in snow and water accumulation on 

 seasonal sea ice is naturally limited, which lessens the impacts 

 of wind-blown snow redistribution on FYI, as compared to those 

 on MYI. At the basin scale, the overall increased melt pond 

 cover results in decreased ice volume via the ice-albedo 

 feedback in summer, which is experienced almost exclusively by 

 MYI.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Lecomte2015-xj,

title = {Interactions between wind-blown snow redistribution and melt 

 ponds in a coupled ocean–sea ice model},

author = {Olivier Lecomte and Thierry Fichefet and Daniela Flocco and David Schroeder and Martin Vancoppenolle},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-03-01},

journal = {Ocean Model. (Oxf.)},

volume = {87},

pages = {67–80},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Introducing a parameterization of the interactions between 

 wind-driven snow depth changes and melt pond evolution allows us 

 to improve large scale models. In this paper we have implemented 

 an explicit melt pond scheme and, for the first time, a wind 

 dependant snow redistribution model and new snow thermophysics 

 into a coupled ocean–sea ice model.The comparison of long-term 

 mean statistics of melt pond fractions against observations 

 demonstrates realistic melt pond cover on average over Arctic 

 sea ice, but a clear underestimation of the pond coverage on the 

 multi-year ice (MYI) of the western Arctic Ocean. The latter 

 shortcoming originates from the concealing effect of persistent 

 snow on forming ponds, impeding their growth. Analyzing a second 

 simulation with intensified snow drift enables the 

 identification of two distinct modes of sensitivity in the melt 

 pond formation process. First, the larger proportion of 

 wind-transported snow that is lost in leads directly curtails 

 the late spring snow volume on sea ice and facilitates the early 

 development of melt ponds on MYI. In contrast, a combination of 

 higher air temperatures and thinner snow prior to the onset of 

 melting sometimes make the snow cover switch to a regime where 

 it melts entirely and rapidly. In the latter situation, 

 seemingly more frequent on first-year ice (FYI), a smaller snow 

 volume directly relates to a reduced melt pond 

 cover.Notwithstanding, changes in snow and water accumulation on 

 seasonal sea ice is naturally limited, which lessens the impacts 

 of wind-blown snow redistribution on FYI, as compared to those 

 on MYI. At the basin scale, the overall increased melt pond 

 cover results in decreased ice volume via the ice-albedo 

 feedback in summer, which is experienced almost exclusively by 

 MYI.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Flocco2015-wo,

title = {The refreezing of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice},

author = {Daniela Flocco and Daniel L Feltham and Eleanor Bailey and David Schroeder},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-02-01},

journal = {J. Geophys. Res. Oceans},

volume = {120},

number = {2},

pages = {647–659},

publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},

abstract = {AbstractThe presence of melt ponds on the surface of Arctic sea 

 ice significantly reduces its albedo, inducing a positive 

 feedback leading to sea ice thinning. While the role of melt 

 ponds in enhancing the summer melt of sea ice is well known, 

 their impact on suppressing winter freezing of sea ice has, 

 hitherto, received less attention. Melt ponds freeze by forming 

 an ice lid at the upper surface, which insulates them from the 

 atmosphere and traps pond water between the underlying sea ice 

 and the ice lid. The pond water is a store of latent heat, which 

 is released during refreezing. Until a pond freezes completely, 

 there can be minimal ice growth at the base of the underlying 

 sea ice. In this work, we present a model of the refreezing of a 

 melt pond that includes the heat and salt balances in the ice 

 lid, trapped pond, and underlying sea ice. The model uses a 

 two‐stream radiation model to account for radiative scattering 

 at phase boundaries. Simulations and related sensitivity studies 

 suggest that trapped pond water may survive for over a month. We 

 focus on the role that pond salinity has on delaying the 

 refreezing process and retarding basal sea ice growth. We 

 estimate that for a typical sea ice pond coverage in autumn, 

 excluding the impact of trapped ponds in models overestimates 

 ice growth by up to 265 million km3, an overestimate of 26%.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Bulczak2015-ia,

title = {Seasonal variability of sea surface height in the coastal waters 

 and deep basins of the Nordic Seas},

author = {Anna I Bulczak and Sheldon Bacon and Alberto C Naveira Garabato and Andrew Ridout and Maike J P Sonnewald and Seymour W Laxon},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-01-01},

journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},

volume = {42},

number = {1},

pages = {113–120},

publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Leeson2015-ek,

title = {Supraglacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet advance inland 

 under warming climate},

author = {A A Leeson and A Shepherd and K Briggs and I Howat and X Fettweis and M Morlighem and E Rignot},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-01-01},

journal = {Nat. Clim. Chang.},

volume = {5},

number = {1},

pages = {51–55},

publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},

abstract = {Supraglacial lakes (SGLs) form annually on the Greenland ice 

 sheet and, when they drain, their discharge enhances ice-sheet 

 flow by lubricating the base and potentially by warming the ice. 

 Today, SGLs tend to form within the ablation zone, where 

 enhanced lubrication is offset by efficient subglacial drainage. 

 However, it is not clear what impact a warming climate will have 

 on this arrangement. Here, we use an SGL initiation and growth 

 model to show that lakes form at higher altitudes as 

 temperatures rise, consistent with satellite observations. Our 

 simulations show that in southwest Greenland, SGLs spread 103 

 and 110 km further inland by the year 2060 under moderate (RCP 

 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios, 

 respectively, leading to an estimated 48-53% increase in the 

 area over which they are distributed across the ice sheet as a 

 whole. Up to half of these new lakes may be large enough to 

 drain, potentially delivering water and heat to the ice-sheet 

 base in regions where subglacial drainage is inefficient. In 

 such places, ice flow responds positively to increases in 

 surface water delivered to the bed through enhanced basal 

 lubrication and warming of the ice, and so the inland advance of 

 SGLs should be considered in projections of ice-sheet change.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Levinsen2015-lc,

title = {ESA ice sheet CCI: derivation of the optimal method for 

 surface elevation change detection of the Greenland ice sheet – 

 round robin results},

author = {J F Levinsen and K Khvorostovsky and F Ticconi and A Shepherd and R Forsberg and L S Sørensen and A Muir and N Pie and D Felikson and T Flament and R Hurkmans and G Moholdt and B Gunter and R C Lindenbergh and M Kleinherenbrink},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-01-01},

journal = {Int. J. Remote Sens.},

volume = {36},

number = {2},

pages = {551–573},

publisher = {Informa UK Limited},

abstract = {For more than two decades, radar altimetry missions have 

 provided continuous elevation estimates of the Greenland ice 

 sheet (GrIS). Here, we propose a method for using such data to 

 estimate ice-sheet-wide surface elevation changes (SECs). The 

 final data set will be based on observations acquired from the 

 European Space Agency's Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT), 

 European Remote Sensing (ERS)-1 and -2, CryoSat-2, and, in the 

 longer term, Sentinel-3 satellites. In order to find the 

 best-performing method, an intercomparison exercise has been 

 carried out in which the scientific community was asked to 

 provide their best SEC estimates as well as feedback sheets 

 describing the applied method. Due to the hitherto few 

 radar-based SEC analyses as well as the higher accuracy of laser 

 data, the participants were asked to use either ENVISAT radar or 

 ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser 

 altimetry over the Jakobshavn Isbræ drainage basin. The 

 submissions were validated against airborne laser-scanner data, 

 and intercomparisons were carried out to analyse the potential 

 of the applied methods and to find whether the two altimeters 

 were capable of resolving the same signal. The analyses found 

 great potential of the applied repeat-track and cross-over 

 techniques, and, for the first time over Greenland, that 

 repeat-track analyses from radar altimetry agreed well with 

 laser data. Since topography-related errors can be neglected in 

 cross-over analyses, it is expected that the most accurate, 

 ice-sheet-wide SEC estimates are obtained by combining the 

 cross-over and repeat-track techniques. It is thus possible to 

 exploit the high accuracy of the former and the large spatial 

 data coverage of the latter. Based on CryoSat's different 

 operation modes, and the increased spatial and temporal data 

 coverage, this shows good potential for a future inclusion of 

 CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 data to continuously obtain accurate 

 SEC estimates both in the interior and margin ice sheet.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Morris2015-dz,

title = {Uncertainty in mass-balance trends derived from altimetry: a 

 case study along the EGIG line, central Greenland},

author = {Elizabeth M Morris and Duncan J Wingham},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-01-01},

journal = {J. Glaciol.},

volume = {61},

number = {226},

pages = {345–356},

publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)},

abstract = {AbstractRepeated measurements of density profiles and surface 

 elevation along a 515 km traverse of the Greenland ice sheet are 

 used to determine elevation change rates and the error in 

 determining mass-balance trends from these rates which arises 

 from short-term fluctuations in mass input, compaction and 

 surface density. Mean values of this error, averaged over 100 km 

 sections of the traverse, decrease with time from the start of 

 observations in 2004, with a half-time of ∼4 years. After 7 

 years the mean error is less than the ice equivalent mass 

 imbalance.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{McMillan2014-yj,

title = {Rapid dynamic activation of a marine‐based Arctic ice cap},

author = {Malcolm McMillan and Andrew Shepherd and Noel Gourmelen and Amaury Dehecq and Amber Leeson and Andrew Ridout and Thomas Flament and Anna Hogg and Lin Gilbert and Toby Benham and Michiel Broeke and Julian A Dowdeswell and Xavier Fettweis and Brice Noël and Tazio Strozzi},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-12-01},

journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},

volume = {41},

number = {24},

pages = {8902–8909},

publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},

abstract = {AbstractWe use satellite observations to document rapid 

 acceleration and ice loss from a formerly slow‐flowing, 

 marine‐based sector of Austfonna, the largest ice cap in the 

 Eurasian Arctic. During the past two decades, the sector ice 

 discharge has increased 45‐fold, the velocity regime has 

 switched from predominantly slow (~ 101 m/yr) to fast (~ 103 

 m/yr) flow, and rates of ice thinning have exceeded 25 m/yr. At 

 the time of widespread dynamic activation, parts of the terminus 

 may have been near floatation. Subsequently, the imbalance has 

 propagated 50 km inland to within 8 km of the ice cap summit. 

 Our observations demonstrate the ability of slow‐flowing ice to 

 mobilize and quickly transmit the dynamic imbalance inland; a 

 process that we show has initiated rapid ice loss to the ocean 

 and redistribution of ice mass to locations more susceptible to 

 melt, yet which remains poorly understood.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Roberts2014-ra,

title = {Topography's crucial role in Heinrich Events},

author = {William H G Roberts and Paul J Valdes and Antony J Payne},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-11-01},

journal = {Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.},

volume = {111},

number = {47},

pages = {16688–16693},

publisher = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},

abstract = {Heinrich Events, the abrupt changes in the Laurentide Ice Sheet 

 that cause the appearance of the well-observed Heinrich Layers, 

 are thought to have a strong effect on the global climate. The 

 focus of most studies that have looked at the climate's response 

 to these events has been the freshwater flux that results from 

 melting icebergs. However, there is the possibility that the 

 varying height of the ice sheet could force a change in the 

 climate. In this study, we present results from a newly 

 developed coupled climate/ice sheet model to show what effect 

 this topographic change has both on its own and in concert with 

 the flux of freshwater from melting icebergs. We show that the 

 topographic forcing can explain a number of the climate changes 

 that are observed during Heinrich Events, such as the warming 

 and wettening in Florida and the warm sea surface temperatures 

 in the central North Atlantic, which freshwater forcing alone 

 cannot. We also find regions, for example the tropical Atlantic, 

 where the response is a mixture of the two: Here observations 

 may help disentangle the relative importance of each mechanism. 

 These results suggest that the simple paradigm of a Heinrich 

 Event causing climate change via freshwater inputs into the 

 North Atlantic needs to be revised.},

keywords = {North Atlantic; abrupt climate changes; ice sheet−climate   interactions},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Wright2014-nj,

title = {Sensitivity of the Weddell Sea sector ice streams to sub-shelf 

 melting and surface accumulation},

author = {A P Wright and A M Le Brocq and S L Cornford and R G Bingham and H F J Corr and F Ferraccioli and T A Jordan and A J Payne and D M Rippin and N Ross and M J Siegert},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-11-01},

journal = {Cryosphere},

volume = {8},

number = {6},

pages = {2119–2134},

publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},

abstract = {Abstract. A recent ocean modelling study indicates that possible 

 changes in circulation may bring warm deep-ocean water into 

 direct contact with the grounding lines of the Filchner–Ronne 

 ice streams, suggesting the potential for future ice losses from 

 this sector equivalent to ~0.3 m of sea-level rise. Significant 

 advancements have been made in our knowledge of both the basal 

 topography and ice velocity in the Weddell Sea sector, and the 

 ability to accurately model marine ice sheet dynamics, thus 

 enabling an assessment to be made of the relative sensitivities 

 of the diverse collection of ice streams feeding the 

 Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf. Here we use the BISICLES ice sheet 

 model, which employs adaptive-mesh refinement to resolve 

 grounding line dynamics, to carry out such an assessment. The 

 impact of realistic perturbations to the surface and sub-shelf 

 mass balance forcing fields from our 2000-year ``reference'' 

 model run indicate that both the Institute and Möller ice 

 streams are highly sensitive to changes in basal melting either 

 near to their respective grounding lines, or in the region of 

 the ice rises within the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf. These same 

 perturbations have little impact, however, on the Rutford, 

 Carlson or Foundation ice streams, while the Evans Ice Stream is 

 found to enter a phase of unstable retreat only after melt at 

 its grounding line has increased by 50% of likely present-day 

 values.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Heorton2014-gy,

title = {The response of the sea ice edge to atmospheric and oceanic jet 

 formation},

author = {Harold D B S Heorton and Daniel L Feltham and Julian C R Hunt},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-09-01},

journal = {J. Phys. Oceanogr.},

volume = {44},

number = {9},

pages = {2292–2316},

publisher = {American Meteorological Society},

abstract = {AbstractThe sea ice edge presents a region of many feedback 

 processes between the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice (Maslowski 

 et al.). Here the authors focus on the impact of on-ice 

 atmospheric and oceanic flows at the sea ice edge. Mesoscale jet 

 formation due to the Coriolis effect is well understood over 

 sharp changes in surface roughness such as coastlines (Hunt et 

 al.). This sharp change in surface roughness is experienced by 

 the atmosphere and ocean encountering a compacted sea ice edge. 

 This paper presents a study of a dynamic sea ice edge responding 

 to prescribed atmospheric and oceanic jet formation. An 

 idealized analytical model of sea ice drift is developed and 

 compared to a sea ice climate model [the Los Alamos Sea Ice 

 Model (CICE)] run on an idealized domain. The response of the 

 CICE model to jet formation is tested at various resolutions.It 

 is found that the formation of atmospheric jets at the sea ice 

 edge increases the wind speed parallel to the sea ice edge and 

 results in the formation of a sea ice drift jet in agreement 

 with an observed sea ice drift jet (Johannessen et al.). The 

 increase in ice drift speed is dependent upon the angle between 

 the ice edge and wind and results in up to a 40% increase in 

 ice transport along the sea ice edge. The possibility of oceanic 

 jet formation and the resultant effect upon the sea ice edge is 

 less conclusive. Observations and climate model data of the 

 polar oceans have been analyzed to show areas of likely 

 atmospheric jet formation, with the Fram Strait being of 

 particular interest.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jenouvrier2014-vd,

title = {Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under 

 climate change},

author = {Stéphanie Jenouvrier and Marika Holland and Julienne Stroeve and Mark Serreze and Christophe Barbraud and Henri Weimerskirch and Hal Caswell},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-08-01},

journal = {Nat. Clim. Chang.},

volume = {4},

number = {8},

pages = {715–718},

publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},

abstract = {Climate change has been projected to affect species 

 distribution1 and future trends of local populations2, 3, but 

 projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse 

 global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes 

 forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence 

 of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models 

 assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 

 effort4. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin 

 colonies5 by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model6, 7 

 with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected 

 through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ 

 among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be 

 declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by 

 >50% from their current size. The global population is 

 projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to 

 classify species by their extinction risk are based on the 

 global population dynamics8, global analyses are critical for 

 conservation9. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global 

 projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria 

 for species endangered by future climate change.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Levermann2014-tk,

title = {Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from 

 SeaRISE ice-sheet models},

author = {A Levermann and R Winkelmann and S Nowicki and J L Fastook and K Frieler and R Greve and H H Hellmer and M A Martin and M Meinshausen and M Mengel and A J Payne and D Pollard and T Sato and R Timmermann and W L Wang and R A Bindschadler},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-08-01},

journal = {Earth Syst. Dyn.},

volume = {5},

number = {2},

pages = {271–293},

publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},

abstract = {Abstract. The largest uncertainty in projections of future 

 sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical 

 ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced 

 by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for 

 additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt 

 to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from 

 Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the 

 oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The 

 uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained 

 from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 

 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate 

 Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of 

 the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 

 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model 

 Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the 

 EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived 

 from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for 

 four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from 

 the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) 

 intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet 

 models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic 

 Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 

 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we 

 use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation 

 of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming 

 of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air 

 temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st 

 century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02–0.14 m; 90% 

 range: 0.0–0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the 

 low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) 

 scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04–0.21 m; 90% range: 

 0.01–0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay 

 between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, 

 these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04–0.17 m; 90% 

 range: 0.02–0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 

 0.07–0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04–0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All 

 probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. 

 The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with 

 limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. 

 Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty 

 induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that 

 induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Armitage2014-vr,

title = {Meteorological origin of the static crossover pattern present in 

 low-resolution-mode CryoSat-2 data over central Antarctica},

author = {Thomas W K Armitage and Duncan J Wingham and Andy L Ridout},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-07-01},

journal = {IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett.},

volume = {11},

number = {7},

pages = {1295–1299},

publisher = {Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{McMillan2014-mc,

title = {Increased ice losses from Antarctica detected by CryoSat-2},

author = {Malcolm McMillan and Andrew Shepherd and Aud Sundal and Kate Briggs and Alan Muir and Andrew Ridout and Anna Hogg and Duncan Wingham},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-06-01},

journal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},

volume = {41},

number = {11},

pages = {3899–3905},

publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}