CPOM co-Director Dr Ins Otosaka (Northumbria University) gave evidence yesterday to the Environmental Audit Sub-Committee on Polar Research as part of The UK and Antarctic Environment Enquiry.
The meeting, which took place at the House of Commons, also included evidence from scientists and Directors from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) as well as Durham University.
The Inquiry is exploring the effects of climate change in Antarctica and how UK science can play a role in understanding this change and protect the region. It also considers what the UK Government can do to meet their obligations under the Antarctic Treaty.
The Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling investigates processes in the earth’s cryosphere, including in Antarctica, using satellite observation data and numerical modelling. Through this CPOM aims to understand how Antarctica, and other aspects of the cryosphere, are changing and the potential impact of these changes on the global climate.
Dr Ins Otosaka is a lecturer at Northumbria University and her research focuses on using satellite and airborne altimetry data of the Antarctic and Greenland icesheets to detect and interpret changes and estimate their contribution to sea level rise.
The paper explains what firn is, what affects it, and the future of firn, as well as discussing how research in this area is rapidly developing.
Firn is multi-year snow and ice which covers the earth’s two ice sheets, in Greenland and Antarctica. It has an important role to play in preventing meltwater running off into the ocean and protects ice shelves surrounding Antarctica from catastrophic collapse. This research paper discusses how extreme events and atmospheric patterns affect firn structure and how future climate scenarios may amplify this.
The Firn Symposium Team, consists of 35 co-authors from multiple countries including, Assistant Professor Dr Sammie Buzzard and Research Fellow Dr Athul Kaitheri (both CPOM members at Northumbria University).
Congratulations to CPOM associate, Tamsin Edwards (KCL) who in 2023, will be on secondment as a new Parliamentary “Thematic Research Lead”: helping to provide evidence to Parliament on climate & environmental science.
Tamsin will each join new thematic policy hubs which will bring together staff from POST, the House of Commons Library and Select Committee teams, ensuring greater co-ordination and a better flow of research information through Parliament.
The following blog was written by PhD researcher, Amy Swiggs based at the University of Leeds.
Andy Shepherd, In’s Otosaka, Anne Braakmann-Folgmann and I travelled to Greenland in Spring 2022 for the European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) CRYO2ICE campaign. The campaign is an international effort to cross-validate ice-monitoring satellites, including CryoSat-2, ICESat-2, AltiKA, and Sentinel-3. The campaign was coordinated across the EGIG line on the Greenland Ice Sheet.
We flew to Iceland on March 28th and had two days in Reykjavik to finalise the experiment plan and calibrate equipment, such as the magna probe, used for measuring snow depth, and practice assembling the corner reflectors, used as a strong scattering surface for the Technical University of Denmark’s (DTU’s) airborne LIDAR. Anne flew to Greenland to prepare for analysing the ice cores the rest of us would collect on the ice sheet. We then had a five-hour drive through Iceland to Akureyri, where we had equipment stored, and would be boarding our Norlandair twin otter flight to Greenland the following day.
Bad weather in Ilulissat meant our plans changed, but fortunately Andy and In’s were able to collect an ice core on the EGIG line, before we all spent the night in Sisimiut, west Greenland. When the weather improved, we coordinated with the team at DTU to organise an overpass of their LIDAR over our corner reflectors on the EGIG line. We also collected snow depth measurements with the magna probe and weighed snow for snow density calculations. We did this at two sites on the EGIG line, with DTU spotting our corner reflectors at both sites.
The following day, we were on the ice again, collecting an ice core for analysis. The weather was sunny, but temperatures reached -30C on the ice during the campaign. We returned to Ilulissat and analysed the ice cores with Anne, which involved using fluorescent light to look for ice lenses and other distinguishable features in the cores. The following day we had a long flight back to Reykjavik, but fortunately had stunning views over the ice sheet throughout.
That marked the end of a very successful campaign. Steven George, University of Reading, provided invaluable support during the campaign, assisting with measurements and logistics. The airborne and coordination team at DTU included Rene Forsberg, Louise Sandberg S¸rensen, Henriette Skourup, Rene Fredensborg Hansen, and Sine Hvidegaard. Alessandro Di Bella (ESA) also assisted in the airborne campaign. We re grateful to the fantastic team effort in coordinating a highly successful campaign.
A glacier in West Antarctica has been formally named after the city of Glasgow to mark its hosting of the COP26 climate change conference.
The Scottish city will welcome more than 100 world leaders to COP26, the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of Parties, from this weekend until Friday 12 November. The conference marks a key moment in human history for our response to climate change, especially given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Glasgow Glacier is one of nine areas of fast flowing ice in the Getz basin to be named after locations of major climate treaties, conferences and reports, following a request by University of Leeds scientists.
CPOM PhD Researcher Heather Selley, from Leeds School of Earth and Environment, and an Enrichment Student at the Alan Turing Institute, identified 14 glaciers in the Getz basin of West Antarctica that are thinning and flowing more quickly into the ocean.
Her study, published in February 2021, revealed that 315 gigatonnes of ice has been lost from the Getz region over the last 25-years, adding 0.9 mm to global mean sea level – the equivalent of 126 million Olympic swimming pools of water.
To mark 42 years of collaboration on international science and climate policy decision-making, Heather requested that the nine unnamed glaciers in her study be named after the locations of major climate treaties, conferences and reports. Five of the glaciers were previously named for US explorers, researchers and officials working in the region.
The proposal was submitted by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office on behalf of the UK Government and supported by the UK Antarctic Place-names Committee. The names will now be added to the international Composite Gazetteer for Antarctica, for use on maps, charts and future publications.
Heather said: “Our study was the first to show that glaciers in this remote region of Antarctica were speeding up. The glaciers are named in chronological order, with Geneva Glacier marking the first ever climate summit in 1979 on the west of the Getz study region and Glasgow Glacier marking the upcoming COP26 on the east.”
“Naming the glaciers after these locations is a great way to celebrate this international collaboration on climate change science and policy over the last 42 years. We wanted to permanently mark the outstanding effort the scientific community has put into measuring the present-day impact of climate change, and its predicted future evolution.”
Amanda Milling, Foreign Commonwealth and Development Officer for Polar Regions, said: “Naming these fast-flowing glaciers sends a clear message that time is running out for action on climate change. It also recognises the importance of global collaboration as we look towards Glasgow and COP26.”
“Scientists estimate that over the past 25 years the Getz region has added the equivalent of 126 million Olympic swimming pools of water to world oceans, due to climate change. The time is now for urgent action.”
Dramatic changes in ice cover and images of the Antarctica have become synonymous with the climate crisis. Over the last 40 years, satellites have observed huge iceberg calving events, change in the flow of glaciers and regions of rapidly thinning ice, all of which improves our understanding of how the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise has changed and provides essential evidence of the impact of climate change.
The 500km-long Getz ice shelf was discovered during the 1940s by the United States Antarctic Service (USAS) and the US Navy. It was first mapped by the United States Geological Survey from US Navy air pictures taken between 1962 – 65, and named by the USAS after George F Getz of Chicago, who helped furnish the seaplane for the expedition.
Modern exploration of the area is done using satellite imaging, with space playing an increasing role in helping scientists to monitor, understand and tackle climate change. The European Space Agency earth observation data provides high-resolution satellite images taken every six days by Sentinel-1, part of the Copernicus Programme satellite constellation. This allows researchers to measure localised speed changes with ever greater detail.
Dr Anna Hogg, Associate Professor in Leeds’ School of Earth and Environment, said: “The climate crisis affects all of us, whether through flooding of our homes, increased storm frequency, reduced crop harvests, or the loss of habitats and biodiversity in the natural environment, with some communities impacted much more than others. Whilst these new glacier names celebrate the knowledge gained through scientific collaboration and the action taken through policy, it is clear now that much more must be done.”
“I am inspired by the school climate strikes, which remind all of us that we are only temporary gatekeepers, and have a responsibility to protect planet Earth for the next generation. There is no doubt that there’s a need for urgent action, we have great hope in the power of international collaboration which can enable significant progress to be made at COP26 this year.
“The recent IPCC AR6 report finds that unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, it will not be possible to limit warming close to 1.5°C or even 2°C.”
The Geneva Glacier flows at the western end of the Getz Ice Shelf and was named after the world’s first climate conference in 1979.
The Rio Glacier lies further east and commemorates the first Earth Summit in 1992 where the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was opened for signatures along with its sisters the Rio convention, the UN convention on biological diversity and the UN convention to combat desertification.
The Berlin Glacier flows further east and is named after the first Conference of Parties (COP) in 1995 which assessed the progress of dealing with climate change. It marked the uniting of the world to tackle climate change and the agreement on a mandate for future negotiations.
Still further east lies the Kyoto Glacier commemorating the formal adoption of the Kyoto Protocol at COP3 in 1997, which legally bound developed countries to emission reduction targets.
The Bali Glacier marks the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forth assessment report (AR4) in 2007. Around this time climate science entered into the popular consciousness. At the thirteenth Conference of Parties (COP13) parties agreed on the Bali road map, which charted the way towards post-2012 outcome with a working group on long-term cooperative action under the convention.
The Stockholm Glacier honours the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment report (AR5) approval session in 2014. This report represents the biggest ever coming together of scientists at the time.
The Paris Glacier memorialises the agreement of a legally binding treaty in 2015 which aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably below 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. It was adopted by 196 parties that together represented at least 55 % of the global greenhouse gas emissions.
The Incheon Glacier marks the meeting of the IPCC to consider the special report of global warming of 1.5°C in 2015. This marked the first time the three different IPCC working groups worked together to produce a report in an interdisciplinary manner.
Finally, the Glasgow Glacier flows at the very east end of the Getz basin and is named after Glasgow which will host the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP26) later this year. It marks a key moment in human history for our response to climate change especially given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Further information
“Widespread increase in dynamic imbalance in the Getz region of Antarctica from 1994 to 2018” was published in Nature Communications on 23 February 2021. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21321-1
For further information and interviews, contact the University of Leeds press office via pressoffice@leeds.ac.uk.
Sea ice in the coastal regions of the Arctic may be thinning up to twice as fast as previously thought, according to a new modelling study led by CPOM UCL researchers.
Sea ice thickness is inferred by measuring the height of the ice above the water, and this measurement is distorted by snow weighing the ice floe down. Scientists adjust for this using a map of snow depth in the Arctic that is decades out of date and does not account for climate change.
In the new study, published in the journal The Cryosphere, researchers swapped this map for the results of a new computer model designed to estimate snow depth as it varies year to year, and concluded that sea ice in key coastal regions was thinning at a rate that was 70% to 100% faster than previously thought.
Robbie Mallett (CPOM PhD researcher, UCL), the PhD student who led the study, said: “The thickness of sea ice is a sensitive indicator of the health of the Arctic. It is important as thicker ice acts as an insulating blanket, stopping the ocean from warming up the atmosphere in winter, and protecting the ocean from the sunshine in summer. Thinner ice is also less likely to survive during the Arctic summer melt.”
“Previous calculations of sea ice thickness are based on a snow map last updated 20 years ago. Because sea ice has begun forming later and later in the year, the snow on top has less time to accumulate. Our calculations account for this declining snow depth for the first time, and suggest the sea ice is thinning faster than we thought.”
Co-author Professor Julienne Stroeve (CPOM Associate Investigator, UCL) said: “There are a number of uncertainties in measuring sea ice thickness but we believe our new calculations are a major step forward in terms of more accurately interpreting the data we have from satellites.”
“We hope this work can be used to better assess the performance of climate models that forecast the effects of long-term climate change in the Arctic – a region that is warming at three times the global rate, and whose millions of square kilometres of ice are essential for keeping the planet cool.”
To calculate sea ice thickness researchers used radar from the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 satellite. By timing how long it takes for radar waves to bounce back from the ice, they can calculate the height of the ice above the water, from which they can infer the ice’s total thickness.
In the new study, researchers used a novel snow model previously developed by researchers at UCL and Colorado State University, SnowModel-LG, which calculates snow depth and density using inputs such as air temperature, snowfall and ice motion data to track how much snow accumulates on sea ice as it moves around the Arctic Ocean. By combining the results of the snow model with satellite radar observations, they then estimated the overall rate of decline of sea ice thickness in the Arctic, as well as the variability of sea ice thickness from year to year.
They found that the rate of decline in the three coastal seas of Laptev, Kara and Chukchi seas increased by 70%, 98% and 110% respectively, when compared to earlier calculations. They also found that, across all seven coastal seas, the variability in sea ice thickness from year to year increased by 58%.
Sea ice in the coastal seas typically varies from half a metre to two metres thick. Increasingly, the ice in this region is not surviving the summer melt. The faster thinning of sea ice in the coastal Arctic seas has implications for human activity in the region, both in terms of shipping along the Northern Sea Route for a larger part of the year, as well as the extraction of resources from the sea floor such as oil, gas and minerals.
Mallett said: “More ships following the route around Siberia would reduce the fuel and carbon emissions necessary to move goods around the world, particularly between China and Europe. However, it also raises the risk of fuel spillages in the Arctic, the consequences of which could be dire. The thinning of coastal sea ice is also worrying for indigenous communities, as it leaves settlements on the coast increasingly exposed to strong weather and wave action from the emerging ocean.”
Mallett, Professor Stroeve and co-author Dr Michel Tsamados (CPOM Associate Investigator, UCL) spent several weeks investigating snow and ice in the Arctic onboard the German research vessel Polarstern, which explored the central Arctic Ocean in 2019 and 2020.
The study was funded by the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
Dr Rosemary Willatt, a CPOM Research Fellow delivers Secondary School Science Advisors programme.
Rosemary Willatt, a Research Fellow in UCL Earth Science’s Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, has developed a new outreach idea based around a flipped learning approach and a reversed power dynamic between students and teachers. Working with the Geobus Leader, Amy Edgington, she presented information on her own work on remote sensing of sea ice, and gave secondary school students the chance to take an active role in the research through posing science questions for Rosie to research.
Martin Hains, a teacher at Leyton College, said:
“Collaborating with UCL has helped to develop our learner’s critical thinking skills. Students have gained first-hand experience of cutting-edge climate research and have been inspired to learn more about the polar regions and their impact on climate change.”
The students have come up with a series of fantastic questions for Rosie, many of which are active topics of research for her or other scientists, giving her the opportunity to develop her own thinking and to bring up-to-date climate science to the students. She hopes to work with other schools or colleges in future.
Noel Gourmelen, CPOM Associate Investigator at University of Edinburgh, is amongst the authors of a recent study, which shows that mountain glaciers in the Gulf Alaska and in High Mountain Asia have lost 5% of their volume of ice over last decade. The full story can be found at ESA.
As our climate warms, ice melting from glaciers around the world is one of main causes of sea-level rise. As well as being a major contributor to this worrying trend, the loss of glacier ice also poses a direct threat to hundreds of millions of people relying on glacier runoff for drinking water and irrigation. With monitoring mountain glaciers clearly important for these reasons and more, new research, based on information from ESA’s CryoSat mission, shows how much ice has been lost from mountain glaciers in the Gulf Alaska and in High Mountain Asia since 2010.
Monitoring glaciers globally is a challenge because of their sheer number, size, remoteness and rugged terrain they occupy. Various satellite instruments offer key data to monitor change, but one type of spaceborne sensor – the radar altimeter – has seen limited use over mountain glaciers.
Traditionally, satellite radar altimeters are used to monitor changes in the height of the sea surface and changes in the height of the huge ice sheets that cover Antarctica and Greenland. They work by measuring the time it takes for a radar pulse transmitted from the satellite to reflect from Earth’s surface and return to the satellite. Knowing the exact position of the satellite in space, this measure of time is used to calculate the height of the surface below.
However, the footprint of this type of instrument is generally too coarse to monitor mountain glaciers. ESA’s CryoSat pushes the boundaries of radar altimetry and a particular way of processing its data “swath processing“ make it possible to map glaciers in fine detail.
A paper published recently in The Cryosphere describes how scientists used CryoSat to investigate ice loss in the Gulf of Alaska and High Mountain Asia.
They found that between 2010 and 2019, the Gulf of Alaska lost 76 Gt of ice per year while High Mountain Asia lost 28 Gt of ice per year. These losses are equivalent to adding 0.21 mm and 0.05 mm to sea level rise per year, respectively.
Livia Jakob, from Earthwave, explains, “One of the unique properties of this dataset is that we can look at ice trends at exceptionally high resolution in space and time. This enabled us to discover changes in trends, such as the increased ice loss from 2013 onwards in parts of the Gulf of Alaska, which is linked to climatic changes.”
The study, which was carried out through ESA’s Science for Society programme, also shows that almost all regions have lost ice, with the exception of the Karakoram-Kunlun area in High Mountain Asia, a phenomenon known was the “Karakoram anomaly”.
Noel Gourmelen, CPOM Associate Investigator at University of Edinburgh, is amongst the authors of a recent study, which shows that mountain glaciers in the Gulf Alaska and in High Mountain Asia have lost 5% of their volume of ice over last decade. The full story can be found at ESA.
As our climate warms, ice melting from glaciers around the world is one of main causes of sea-level rise. As well as being a major contributor to this worrying trend, the loss of glacier ice also poses a direct threat to hundreds of millions of people relying on glacier runoff for drinking water and irrigation. With monitoring mountain glaciers clearly important for these reasons and more, new research, based on information from ESA’s CryoSat mission, shows how much ice has been lost from mountain glaciers in the Gulf Alaska and in High Mountain Asia since 2010.
Monitoring glaciers globally is a challenge because of their sheer number, size, remoteness and rugged terrain they occupy. Various satellite instruments offer key data to monitor change, but one type of spaceborne sensor “the radar altimeter“ has seen limited use over mountain glaciers.
Traditionally, satellite radar altimeters are used to monitor changes in the height of the sea surface and changes in the height of the huge ice sheets that cover Antarctica and Greenland. They work by measuring the time it takes for a radar pulse transmitted from the satellite to reflect from Earth’s surface and return to the satellite. Knowing the exact position of the satellite in space, this measure of time is used to calculate the height of the surface below.
However, the footprint of this type of instrument is generally too coarse to monitor mountain glaciers. ESA’s CryoSat pushes the boundaries of radar altimetry and a particular way of processing its data “swath processing“ make it possible to map glaciers in fine detail.
A paper published recently in The Cryosphere describes how scientists used CryoSat to investigate ice loss in the Gulf of Alaska and High Mountain Asia.
They found that between 2010 and 2019, the Gulf of Alaska lost 76 Gt of ice per year while High Mountain Asia lost 28 Gt of ice per year. These losses are equivalent to adding 0.21 mm and 0.05 mm to sea level rise per year, respectively.
Livia Jakob, from Earthwave, explains, “One of the unique properties of this dataset is that we can look at ice trends at exceptionally high resolution in space and time. This enabled us to discover changes in trends, such as the increased ice loss from 2013 onwards in parts of the Gulf of Alaska, which is linked to climatic changes.”
The study, which was carried out through ESA’s Science for Society programme, also shows that almost all regions have lost ice, with the exception of the Karakoram-Kunlun area in High Mountain Asia, a phenomenon known was the “Karakoram anomaly”.
Noel Gourmelen, from the University of Edinburgh, said, “It is astonishing to think that over last decade alone, both regions have lost 5% of their volume of ice. What CryoSat has accomplished also is astonishing. While glaciers were a secondary objective of the mission, few would have thought possible to use radar altimetry in regions with extremely complex topography like High Mountain Asia and the Gulf of Alaska.
“But thanks to a brilliant altimeter design, dedicated support from ESA, and many years of research by the community, interferometric radar altimeters are now part of the toolset to monitor glacier change globally.”
This research, as well as that published in a related paper covering the entire Arctic region apart from Greenland, demonstrates that this unique high-resolution radar altimetry dataset can provide crucial information to better quantify and understand glacier changes on a global scale. This also opens up possibilities to monitor glaciers globally with satellites such as the planned CRISTAL mission, part of the expansion of Europe’s Copernicus programme.
Sea level rise caused by melting ice could be halved this century if the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C is met.
A new study, from an international research team headed by CPOM Associate Dr Tamsin Edwards (KCL), explored the land ice contribution to sea level in the 21st century arising from the world’s glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
The study used computer models and statistical techniques to make predictions about the latest socio-economic scenarios which could effect sea levels. The data will help to inform the sixth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is due to be published later this year.
“If we take immediate and strong action on climate change, we could slow down future sea level rise.” -DR CHRISTINE MCKENNA, POSTDOCTORAL RESEARCH FELLOW
The research predicts that if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, Greenland ice sheet losses would reduce by 70 per cent, and glacier losses by half, compared with current emissions pledges.
For Antarctica, the predictions are the same for different emissions scenarios, because it is currently unclear whether snow falling in the cold interior of the ice sheet will offset melting at the coasts.
However, under a “pessimistic” storyline, with much more melting than snowfall, Antarctic ice losses could be five times larger.
Dr McKenna said: “These important results show that if we take immediate and strong action on climate change, we could slow down future sea level rise and reduce the impacts of coastal flooding.
“This is further motivation for governments and others to set stringent greenhouse gas mitigation targets.”
Global sea rise
Glaciers and ice sheets are currently responsible for around half of global sea level rise, with most of the rest arising from expansion of the oceans as they warm.
Previous predictions had used older emissions scenarios, and could not explore uncertainty about the future as thoroughly due to the limited number of simulations.
This statistically-based study updates the scenarios, and combines all sources of land ice into a more complete picture that predicts the likelihood of different levels of sea level rise.
Lead author Dr Tamsin Edwards, of King’s College London, said: “Ahead of COP26 this November, many nations are updating their pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement.
“Global sea level will continue to rise, even if we halt all emissions now, but our research suggests we could limit the damage.”
CPOM contributed to the European State of the Climate 2020 report, an annual report compiled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and implemented by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission. This year, we contributed to two sections: the ice sheets section as well as a new thematic section on the cryosphere as a whole.
The ice sheets are included in this report as a climate indicator, and we provided estimates of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets mass balance produced by IMBIE.
We also contributed to the cryosphere section which includes the ice sheets, mountain glaciers and sea ice and provides a broad overview of the cryosphere. It shows large changes in these three components, with the ice sheets losing a volume of ice equivalent to 10 times the volume of lake Garda, glaciers losing three times the volume of the European Alps during the past decade and sea ice losing an area 5 times the area of Spain between the 1980s and 2010s.
Here are the links to the sections of the report we contributed to:
Figure 1. Components of the cryosphere. Based on Lemke et al. 2007. Credit: C3S/ECMWF
Figure 2. Changes over time in key cryosphere components: ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice. Data source: Ice sheets (IMBIE/ESA/NASA), glaciers (WGMS), sea ice extent (EUMETSAT OSI SAF), sea ice thickness (C3S). Credit: C3S/ECMWF/University of Leeds/WGMS/EUMETSAT OSI SAF/AWI.
