Last year (2023) winter Antarctic sea ice measured at its lowest since 1978 when satellite records began.
Using the CMIP6 data set (climate dataset), British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) researchers investigated this sea ice loss, including data from 18 different climate models in order to understand the likelihood of this level of sea ice loss, and its relationship to climate change.
The research, led by Rachel Diamond (Cambridge University/BAS) shows that this type of event would be a one- in-a-2000-year event without climate change. Using the most up-to-date models showed that this type of decline in sea is four times more likely (a one-in-a-500 year event), suggesting that climate change played a significant role, however this type of event still remains unlikely.
The paper ‘CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023’ by Diamond, R., et al was published on Monday 20 May 2024 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.