UK Strategy Sets Net Zero Goal for Antarctic Polar Science by 2040

UK Strategy Sets Net Zero Goal for Antarctic Polar Science by 2040

The UK Government has published its UK Antarctic Strategy to 2035, setting out the aim to achieve net zero across Antarctic scientific operations by 2040 whilst maintaining Britain’s world-leading position in polar research.

The strategy, released by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, places climate science and environmental sustainability at the heart of UK activities in Antarctica. Through the Antarctic Infrastructure Modernisation Programme, the UK will decarbonise Antarctic research stations by 2030, with full net zero operations by 2040.

The UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) welcomes this comprehensive approach, which demonstrates how climate research and environmental stewardship can be integrated. CPOM’s work in polar observation and ice sheet modelling directly supports the strategy’s ambition to understand changes in Antarctica as an indicator of climate change whilst minimising the environmental footprint of research activities.

Britain commits to maintaining year-round research operations through the British Antarctic Survey, with continued investment in sustainable infrastructure at stations like Rothera. UK Antarctic science will continue to inform global climate policy and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s assessments, with British scientists making internationally recognised contributions to research on ice sheet stability, sea level change, and climate tipping points.

Environmental protection features prominently, with plans to expand marine protected areas, implement biosecurity protocols against invasive species, and designate vulnerable species for protection, including emperor penguins. The strategy also strengthens the Antarctic Treaty System and develops frameworks for managing growing tourism whilst preserving Antarctic heritage.

This commitment to net zero polar science aligns with initiatives such as the Net Zero Polar Science Doctoral Training Programme, which is currently recruiting its first cohort of researchers to advance sustainable practices in polar research.

When does a career in polar science begin?

In this Q&A, CPOM Professor Ali Banwell discusses why she was honoured to be featured in a STEM colouring book, and why representation matters so much in science careers.

What led you into your career as a polar scientist? Was there somebody or something that initially inspired you to pursue STEM?

My mum was a huge influence. She studied engineering at Cambridge when almost no women did (<1%), and later became a maths teacher, then software engineer. Her confidence in maths and physics – subjects not always ‘cool’ for girls – helped shape mine. I also grew up climbing and hiking in the UK mountains with my aunt, who sparked my curiosity about how glaciers once shaped those landscapes. Even though glaciology wasn’t taught at my school, by the time I reached university I knew I wanted to study Earth sciences, specialising in glaciology specifically.

Can you describe what you’re doing in the image that inspired the drawing in the book? What’s the science behind it (in a nutshell)?

I’m drilling a deep hole into a floating glacier (an ‘ice shelf’) to install a long aluminium pole. We mount geophysical instruments on these poles, such as high-precision GPS units, weather stations, and time-lapse cameras, to measure how the glacier ice moves and changes over time, particularly in response to climate change. The photo was taken on the McMurdo Ice Shelf, close to the U.S. Antarctic research station, McMurdo.

Can you tell us a little more about your research?

Broadly, my research focusses on investigating the impact of Earth’s past and future climate on the cryosphere – so all of Earth’s icy regions – with a current focus on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including their floating ice shelves.

Specifically, I specialise in integrating satellite Earth Observation techniques, including optical, microwave, and altimetry data, with field observations to investigate ice sheet and ice shelf surface melt and hydrology, and implications of these processes for ice dynamics. I also work closely with numerical modellers to integrate our new observations and process understanding of ice dynamics into models, ultimately to help provide better forecasts of future glacier ice loss and sea level rise.

I am fortunate to have been to Antarctica six times previously, and I’ve just arrived back there now. I’m at McMurdo, the U.S. station at the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf. Unfortunately, however, I’m a glaciologist who really hates being cold… But I do love penguins!

Where do you see the biggest uncertainties or knowledge gaps in our current understanding of polar ice dynamics, and what will it take to close them?

One of the biggest uncertainties in polar ice dynamics is how quickly ice sheets and ice shelves will respond as the climate continues to warm, including the potential ‘feedbacks’ and ‘tipping points’ that could accelerate change. To reduce these uncertainties, and better constrain future sea-level rise, we need sustained, high-quality Earth Observation records from new satellite missions, supported by targeted fieldwork and modelling. We also need to rethink how we do polar science so that it is more carbon-efficient, whether through using more computationally efficient AI-based models, lower-emission fieldwork logistics, or greater international coordination to minimise our environmental footprint. Closing these knowledge gaps will require long-term investment, interdisciplinary collaboration, and a commitment to monitoring and understanding the polar regions in more sustainable ways.

What is your role at CPOM?

I have joined CPOM as a PI in Land Ice/Ice Shelf Earth Observation, and more broadly as a Professor in Glaciology within Northumbria’s School of Geography and Natural Sciences. After 7.5 years in the U.S. at the University of Colorado Boulder, I’m excited to build new collaborations and expand my research horizons within CPOM and the wider UK glaciological and environmental science communities. Working closely with CPOM’s experts in Earth Observation and modelling, across both land ice and sea ice, will strengthen my research and open up new opportunities for interdisciplinary polar science.

What does being featured in a STEM colouring book mean to you, and what advice would you give to early career researchers considering a career in this field?

I was excited to be part of this because I think one of the most meaningful ways to encourage girls of all backgrounds to pursue Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) is by providing visible role models. In Antarctic field research in particular, female leadership is still rare, so it’s important for girls to see that women can and do lead world-class field science in these and other environments. Research shows that girls’ engagement in STEM subjects, and later women’s participation in STEM careers, often declines with age/career stage. I hope that being part of this book helps to spark that curiosity and confidence in the next generation!

You can find out more and purchase the book from the link below.

Image Credits: From STEM Super Stars: Women of Today Changing the World (KN Storycraft Press, 2025)

Climate tipping points in the news

What are tipping points?

Climate tipping occurs when warming temperatures push parts of the Earth system past critical thresholds, triggering self-reinforcing changes that become difficult or impossible to reverse. Crossing these thresholds will lead to major changes in sea level, ocean circulation, and weather patterns, changes that governments and international agencies need to anticipate and plan for. That’s why monitoring for early warning signs of tipping is crucial.

Tipping points in the news

Recent headlines have focused on the first major climate system to tip into irreversible decline– coral reefs. Scientists confirmed in research published this year that warm-water coral reefs have crossed their thermal tipping point and are experiencing unprecedented, widespread decline.

Other tipping points currently making headlines include:

  • AMOC/Gulf Stream collapse – a shutdown of this ocean circulation system would cause changes to global weather patterns, potentially causing northwest Europe to experience more severe winters while disrupting monsoons and food security worldwide.
  • Weakening carbon sinks – forests and oceans that normally absorb some of the human-made CO2 emissions are becoming less effective, accelerating atmospheric warming.
  • Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet collapse – an irreversible retreat, which, when initiated, would cause metres of additional sea level rise

Focus on the ice sheets

The collapse of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets presents a serious threat. Their collapse would commit us to metres of sea level rise affecting hundreds of millions globally.

But what are the key instabilities scientists are concerned about?

In this article in The Conversation, CPOM Co-Director for Science Dr Inès Otosaka (Northumbria University) explores the three ice sheet instabilities that could trigger collapse and rapid melting:

  • Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI)
  • Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI)
  • Surface Elevation Melt Instability (SEMI)

Inès leads the ESA CryoTipping project with Earth Observation experts from ESA’s Antarctic CCI+ Project and ice sheet modelling experts from Northumbria’s Future of Ice on Earth Peak of Research Excellence, PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) and MPI-GEA (Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology) combining satellite observations with ice sheet modelling to detect marine ice sheet instability at Thwaites glacier in Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea Sector. By feeding satellite data on grounding line location, ice velocity, and surface elevation into ice sheet models, the team aims to detect early warning signs of tipping points and investigate potential irreversibility of the retreat of the Thwaites glacier.

How to create a lesson in ice sheets on a medieval castle!

In early November 2025, CPOM Researcher Diego Moral Pombo (Lancaster University) collaborated with artist James Hooton to create “Still Waters Run Deep”, a beautiful light installation, that transformed Lancaster Castle, and brought the Earth’s ice sheets and glaciers to life, as part of the Light Up Lancaster festival 2025.

In this video we take you behind the scenes, from the initial inspiration to the technological innovation that went into translating polar science into an immersive experience using art, light and music. The case study features insights from Diego, James and CPOM Co-Director for Science, Professor Mal McMillan.

Mal explains more about the GLOBE project (Greenland Subglacial Lake Observatory) which uses high resolution satellite imaging and technology to detect, monitor and predict how hidden (subglacial) lakes interact with the ice sheet above. This project, funded via the European Research Council and UK Research and Innovation, formed some of the inspiration for Diego’s concept, alongside other research into ice dynamics at Lancaster University and CPOM.

Diego said when asked why using art to communicate science is important: “Ice loss from the polar regions may feel like something very far away and something that doesn’t really affect us, but it does have a very local impact and it will end up affecting all of us. Just getting more people interested in the science is obviously great and if we get to spark some vocations and motivation in the youngest ones seeing the piece (installation) that would be great.”

Also included in the video is a clip of the illustration by faith-to.design in action, and beautiful original music from Amber Hooton. We have also included a clip of the stunning final installation.

The installation was supported by Lancaster City Council’s climate change team, UKRI’s Arts and Humanities Council, the UKRI Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and Lancaster University Impact Acceleration Account Programme. It was also part of Lancaster University’s ‘Campus in the City’ event 2025.

UK Scientists warn of glacier ice loss in UNESCO Report

This week, scientists joined the UK National Commission for UNESCO (UKNC) to launch the ‘Glaciers and Ice Sheets in a Warming World: Impacts and Outcomes’ report, edited by Professor David J. Drewry, which shares crucial UK-led scientific research on ice loss from Earth’s glaciers.

Key Findings

The report presents critical statistics on global glacier decline including:

  • Glaciers have lost 6,542 billion tonnes of ice since 2000, threatening the water supply of more than a billion people
  • Ice loss has accelerated by 36% over the past ten years, with glacier melt now accounting for approximately one-third of global sea level rise
  • Fifteen million people are at risk from glacier lake outburst floods, whilst up to two billion depend on water from glaciers for energy, water and food

The full report is available on the UK National Commission for UNESCO (UKNC) website.

Monitoring Glaciers from Space

Chapter three of the report, authored by CPOM Associate Investigator in Land Ice Earth Observation Noel Gourmelen (University of Edinburgh and Earthwave Ltd) with Livia Jakob (Earthwave Ltd), explores how satellite missions monitor glacier decline from space. Using data from missions including the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2, their chapter incorporates key findings from the Glacier Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise (GLAMBIE) Report released earlier this year, which confirmed that since 2000, glaciers have lost 6,542 billion tonnes of ice. Their study also showed that there has been a 36% increase in loss during the second half of the time period (2012-2023) in comparison to the first half of the record (2000-2011).

About CryoSat-2

Launched in 2010, CryoSat-2 transformed our ability to monitor glacier ice from space by offering improved spatial resolution and accuracy, almost-complete polar coverage, and increased measurement density.

What is GLAMBIE?

The GLAMBIE exercise is a collaborative community effort that reconciles 233 estimates from 35 international research teams of ice mass balance from glaciers across all 19 glacierised regions worldwide. By integrating altimetry, gravimetry and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) -based approaches, the GLAMBIE team produces comprehensive and robust estimates for ice loss, which can be used by policymakers and government agencies when planning for future climate scenarios, including IPCC assessments.

Why Monitoring Glaciers Matters

Tracking glacier changes is essential for several reasons:

  • When glaciers melt, they contribute significantly to global sea levels, impacting millions of people worldwide
  • Increased glacier melting can cause glacial lakes to collapse, resulting in devastating floods
  • Many millions of people rely on glacier water for energy, water supplies, crops and livestock

Professor David J Drewry has written about the threats posed by melting glaciers on the UK UNESCO website: https://unesco.org.uk/news/glaciers-shrink-water-is-scarce-lives-are-at-risk

Looking Ahead

The CRISTAL mission, part of the Copernicus Space Programme and scheduled for launch in 2027, aims to continue CryoSat-2’s legacy. As Noel Gourmelen and Livia Jakob emphasize in the report, it is vital to secure future Earth Observation missions like CRISTAL to ensure ongoing and uninterrupted accurate monitoring of Earth’s ice. Such observations and modelling of future scenarios are essential to inform decision-making around glacier preservation and to support strategies for protecting people and infrastructure from the risks posed by melting ice.

The International Year of Glacier Preservation

This report is timely! The United Nations has designated 2025 as the International Year of Glacier Preservation to highlight the importance of glaciers and to ensure that populations who rely on them, as well as those affected by glacier changes, receive the hydrological, meteorological and climate services they need.

For more information, visit www.un-glaciers.org/en.

Image credit: Professor Andrew Shepherd

Using Creativity to Connect People with Space-Based Climate Science

Earth is losing more than a trillion tonnes of ice each year – enough to create an ice cube more than 10km high.

How do we know this?

Satellites like ESA’s CryoSat-2 mission collect crucial climate data from hundreds of miles above Earth.

Once of the challenges we face is how do we make data from space feel real for people on the ground.

Climate change and the research behind it can often feel distant and abstract, but the impacts are immediate and global.

That’s why researchers, space agencies and climate change organisations are getting creative, transforming complex information into experiences that resonate with people outside the scientific community and inspire action from Governments and government agencies.

This International Day of Climate Action, we’re sharing some of the ways that creativity has been used to share environmental science stories in 2025.

Visual storytelling from space

ESA, with Planetary Visions, have partnered to create videos that visualise the research carried out by the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling and other research groups.

Here are some examples:

This animation, featuring research led by CPOM PhD Researcher Nitin Ravinder, shows the thinning of the Greenland ice sheet between 2010 and 2023.

Video Credit: ESA / Planetary Visions / CPOM

And this animation shows something surprising discovered by CPOM Researchers from Lancaster University this year – a subglacial flood bursting through the ice sheet.

Video Credit: ESA/CPOM/Planetary Visions

Stepping inside a year’s worth of ice loss: The Giant Ice Cube

How much ice is a trillion tonnes? CPOM created a 3D, explorable model to help answer this question.

Dr Tom Slater’s research has been transformed into an interactive experience that has travelled across the country, letting school children ‘step into’ a year’s worth of ice loss.

Of those surveyed at our outreach events 85% said they learned something new and 56% said they would consider becoming polar scientists.

Watch this video about why science outreach work is inspiring the next generation of environmental scientists.

Video: CPOM

Using poetry and art to bring science to life

ESA collaborated with artist Jamie Perera to create a multi-sensory installation that transforms satellite data into art. Using poetry penned by ESA’s Peter Bickerton and sonification (turning data into sound) the installation at this year’s Living Planet Symposium shares the science behind the EarthCARE Earth Explorer satellite mission, which gathers data on clouds and aerosols.

Video: ESA

Hear more from Peter Bickerton on how ESA uses creativity to share their science and why this is important

In this short interview, Peter Bickerton, talks about how he uses creativity to tap into people’s imaginations while sharing crucial climate and environmental data derived from earth explorer satellites.

Video credit: CPOM

Bonus: We also have a video of Peter’s 15-year anniversary poem about one of our favourite satellites CryoSat-2!

Video credit: CPOM

Behind the scenes on scientific fieldwork

Some of the most compelling climate science happens in the world’s most remote places where most people will never visit.

That’s why CPOM and programmes like BIOPOLE, led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) bring the Arctic and Antarctic to audiences through video content.

In this video filmed aboard RSS Sir David Attenborough, viewers get to see the science in action.

National Capability science like this spans decades of monitoring and measuring, but these glimpses behind the scenes remind us that climate data comes from real people doing remarkable work in extreme conditions.

Video: CPOM

A castle becomes a canvas

This November, CPOM PhD researcher Diego Moral Pombo in partnership with photographer and media specialist James Hooton, will transform Lancaster Castle into a stunning polar science showcase.

Their light installation projected onto Lancaster Castle’s historic John O’Gaunt Gate will bring ice sheets and glaciers to life, visualizing the hidden dynamics happening deep beneath the ice.

By placing climate science in a public place, the installation will invite visitors to the Light Up Lancaster festival to consider how the Earth’s ice sheets are changing, and why.

From research to action

The satellite data shows that Earth’s ice is melting, but data alone rarely inspires action. By transforming complex satellite observations into giant ice cubes, poetry, art installations, and visual stories help people understand that climate change is happening now, is measurable from space, and is affecting communities worldwide.

This International Day of Climate Action, we’re reminded that inspiring climate action requires both science and imaginative communication.

When the science community makes space-based climate data tangible, accessible and engaging, we empower everyone, from schoolchildren to policymakers to understand the challenge, and be part of the solution.

Spotlight on Space: Inspiring the next generation of polar scientists with CPOM

Video: CPOM

On Saturday 4 October 2025, the UK Centre for Polar Observation (CPOM) joined teams from other companies, universities and science centres at the International Centre for Life, in Newcastle upon Tyne, for their ‘Spotlight on…’ Day.

This year the focus was ‘Space’, one of our favourite topics.

Introducing polar science to young people

During the day we got the chance to meet more than 100 children and their families, all fascinated with space science and wanting to learn more. We had an array of activities ready for them, including polar science inspired puzzles and colouring activities to introduce them to the sort of animals that live in the Arctic and Antarctica. You can find these, and links to other educational resources, on this webpage.

We also introduced them to ESA’s CryoSat-2 and ESA’s ‘Paxi’ mascot, explaining how we use satellites like CryoSat-2 and NASA’s ICESat-2 to monitor the polar regions from space to see what’s happening there. We took along our ice cube tent, an incarnation of the giant ESA ice cube you can see in this video, to help the children understand how much of the ice is melting each year.

About the cube

The cube is a scale model of how much ice is lost on Earth every year if you put it all in one giant ice cube. In real life this cube of ice would be 10 cubic km in size and 1 trillion tonnes in weight! This version of the cube is only 1 cubic meter, so children can interact with it, climbing inside to meet some of the polar animals. We explained to them that the ‘real’ ice cube would be a billion times bigger than our model. The sides of the cube show exactly where the ice is melting and the volume in gigatonnes.

About the science behind the cube

CPOM is a lead partner on ESA’s Antarctic CCI (Climate Change Initiative) project which develops methods for producing long-term and reliable climate data records of Antarctica from satellite observations. CPOM also provides scientific leadership for the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE), a community effort to reconcile satellite estimates of sea level contribution due to ice loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. You can read more about these, and other CPOM projects, on our Projects page.

The importance of sharing our science

As Ben Rutherford-Orrock, Contemporary Science Manager, mentions in our case study video:

“Science is all about asking questions and trying to work out the answers. That could be in solving some of the biggest problems we have in the world. Some of these questions are going to take time. If we are looking at how to answer some of these questions we are going to need the next generation of scientists, technologists, engineers and maths professionals. By making science accessible we can encourage young people to think about science as a potential career for the future.”

CPOM Director for Knowledge Exchange Dr Sammie Buzzard (Northumbria University) continues:

“It’s really important for everyone to know about the science we do here at CPOM because it has implications for the whole planet. We are looking at how our polar regions are changing and where the ice is melting. This can have implications for sea level rise which is going to affect everywhere with a coast and beyond.”

This year we have met around 500 children through outreach events like this.

Of those surveyed at all of these events in 2025:

85% reported learning something new about polar science.

56% said they would consider becoming a polar scientist in the future.

We look forward to continuing to inspire the next generation of polar scientists in 2026 and beyond.

Satellite data helps reveal a hidden world beneath the Antarctic ice sheet

A team of researchers, led by the University of Leeds and comprising CPOM scientists, has discovered 85 previously unknown subglacial lakes hidden beneath the Antarctic ice sheet.

Buried deep under the surface of the ice, subglacial lakes offer a unique insight into how meltwater moves underneath the ice sheet.

The paper, published today in Nature Communications, increases the number of known subglacial lakes to 231 and details five new connected lake networks and drainage pathways.

Leveraging 10 years of Cryosat-2 data

The study, led by Sally Wilson (University of Leeds), used ten years of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) CryoSat-2 mission, to observe changes in ice sheet elevation indicating the filling and draining of subglacial lakes, locating and mapping them as they evolve over time.

Understanding what’s happening beneath ice sheets is important in understanding how they respond to and impact the environment around them, including the ocean. The information can then be considered in ice sheet modelling, which is crucial for projecting future behaviour of ice sheets, how meltwater at the base enters the oceans, and sea level rise.

Antarctic subglacial lake inventory CREDIT ESA (Data source: Wilson, S. et al., 2025) 

How do subglacial lakes form?

Geothermal heat and friction created by hundreds of metres of ice sliding over the Earth’s bedrock creates pools of meltwater at the ice sheet base. Some of these lakes are ‘active’, draining and refilling over time, while some don’t, remaining ‘stable’. Lake Vostok is the largest known subglacial lake with enough water to overflow the Grand Canyon and is thought to be stable. Draining of ‘stable’ lakes like Lake Vostok could have a considerable impact on the ice sheet, how it might drain, and therefore the circulation systems of surrounding oceans and sea level rise.

The team was led by Sally F. Wilson (University of Leeds) and included Anna E. Hogg (University of Leeds) Richard Rigby (University of Leeds) Noel Gourmelen (University of Edinburgh and CPOM Associate Investigator: Ice Sheet Modelling and Satellite InSAR) Isabel Nias (University of Liverpool and CPOM Principal Investigator: Glaciology) & Thomas Slater (Northumbria University/CPOM Research Fellow: Land Ice Earth Observation). 

Find out more

Wilson, S.F., Hogg, A.E., Rigby, R. et al. Detection of 85 new active subglacial lakes in Antarctica from a decade of CryoSat-2 data. Nat Commun 16, 8311 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63773-9

Read more about this story: ESA article

BLOG: Sea ice trends, what ‘good news’ stories are missing

Recent news stories have focused on the slowdown in the decline of Arctic sea ice and some have interpreted these as ‘good news stories’, but what does the science really show?

As sea ice is a vital aspect of the delicate and complex Earth system, it’s vital we understand exactly what is happening with sea ice as global temperatures continue to rise.

Sea ice should not be confused with icebergs, which break away from glaciers as they reach the ocean.

Sea ice forms when sea water freezes, creating ice floes that float on the surface. Sea ice is found year-round in the Arctic and Southern oceans, where the air is cold enough to freeze salt water.

Unlike land-based ice, when sea ice melts it does not contribute to sea level rise in a significant way, but it still has an impact on the Earth’s systems.

Sea ice helps regulate the Earth’s temperature

Sea ice has a higher ‘albedo’ than the surrounding sea water. This means it is more reflective due to its lighter colour. It reflects solar radiation from the sun back into space helping to keep the planet cool and regulating global temperatures.

When sea ice melts, there is a larger proportion of darker sea surface with a ‘low albedo’, absorbing more of the sun’s heat. This creates a feedback loop which means the planet warms further.

This process creates a ‘positive feedback mechanism’. This refers to changes in a system which creates effects that make that change even stronger. As melted ice exposes more dark ocean water, which absorbs more heat from the sun than ice does, the extra heat causes even more ice to melt, which exposes more dark water, and so on. The process reinforces itself and speeds up.

Sea ice helps drive ocean circulation patterns

Ocean currents, which determine weather patterns around the world and help drive the Earth’s wider carbon cycle, are driven by differences in temperature and salinity of the water. This is referred to as thermohaline circulation.

A complex series of processes take place during the sea ice life cycle. Sea water contains salt, making it more dense than fresh water. When it freezes, the ice crystals can’t retain all the salt and so some is rejected into the water around it, making it denser. When sea ice melts, it releases freshwater into the ocean. These fluxes in salt and freshwater dictate the movement of water within the polar oceans and have implications for wider ocean circulation.

One circulation pattern which is sensitive to declining Arctic sea ice is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a system of ocean currents that includes the gulf stream. The gulf stream relies on cold salty water sinking in the North Atlantic to drives the flow of waters from the Azores up towards northern Europe.

As sea ice in the Arctic melts, the water in the northern Atlantic Sea is becoming increasingly diluted and therefore not as heavy. This change has the potential to divert or even collapse these currents and change the patterns of weather Europe and northern United States have become used to, such as milder winters and warmer summers.

Sea ice is a habitat for some of the Earth’s most beautiful species

Sea ice also provides a habitat for a range of species including polar bears, whales, krill and seals. As it melts, these species are increasingly under pressure.

Key indicators of sea ice health

Scientists monitor sea ice using:

  • Extent: The surface area of the sea where the ice is at least 15% ice concentration.
  • Thickness: The vertical depth of the ice
  • Ice volume: The actual amount of ice in volume.

Observing changes in these indicators helps scientists gain a robust understanding of climate change.

How headlines can misrepresent the science

There have been some viral social media stories suggesting that sea ice hasn’t changed over the decades and that sea ice decline is a myth.

There have been other stories that focus on how sea ice in the Artic is not declining at the rate we would expect considering the Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet.

These could seem like good news stories.

What the science reveals

  • CPOM data show average Arctic sea ice thickness in October has reduced by 0.6 centimetres per year since 2010 suggesting an overall decline in sea ice volume even if extent has not reduced.
  • Arctic sea ice has declined in both extent and volume throughout the year, with the most significant losses occurring in late summer, according to ESA satellite data.
  • In this article, NASA reported that in 2025 global sea ice coverage was at a record low. This is due to a rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice extent. There is more information about the current state of sea ice cover in this report from NASA.

Explaining a complex system in one sentence

The problem with headlines is that you can’t capture a complex situation in one sentence, and sea ice is a dynamic and expansive puzzle.

  • Some headlines focus on sea ice extent, which is only one indicator of sea ice coverage, ignoring thickness and volume. Even if the extent of the sea ice remains the same from one year to the next, if it is only half as thick, then the total volume of ice has also halved. The Arctic is losing its thickest multi-year ice, with the ice pack becoming increasingly seasonal. This means that overall there is less sea ice, and therefore more freshwater in the ocean. 
  • Decline in sea ice may appear to slow down due to ‘seasonal variability’, which are ‘short-term variations’ while the overarching long-term trend, monitored over many decades, may still be one of decline. Scientists use climate model simulations to help understand and predict the behaviour of sea ice. Models show that as Arctic sea ice declines over multiple decades, we can expect periods of no change or even growth, due to natural variability within the climate system.
  • As Julienne Stroeve points out in this article, even though sea ice melts during the summer, new ice forms again in winter when temperatures drop. A growth that can obfuscate some of the ice lost in summer. As winters get shorter, there will be less time for the ice to grow, and it won’t grow as thick meaning this “buffer” replacing lost ice is reducing.

The bigger picture

When media outlets report on scientific studies relating to changes in the cryosphere, the focus might be on one element. The problem with this is it might paint a picture of the state of Earth’s ice that may not reveal the full story.

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), long-term warming of the Earth’s climate due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels, is undeniably taking place. The WMO recently declared 2024 as the hottest year on record, and you can see a graph showing global temperatures since 1860 to see how temperatures have, and are rising over centuries.

The Earth’s ice still sees natural cyclical changes caused by ocean currents, short-term weather patterns and atmospheric conditions. This means sea ice extent may recover in the winters, but the long-term trend due to warming remains true.

Over the last three decades sea ice in the Arctic has declined during the summer months and winter ice is newer and thinner. Despite seasonal ups and downs, the net loss of ice is accelerating.

These trends are worrying, but there are some positives we can focus on.

Although the challenge is great, the world is equipped to tackle that challenge.

Monitoring sea ice is rapidly improving, and scientists are getting increasingly better at understanding these huge and dynamic areas of ice. This means we can better project future outcomes and plan and mitigate for future changes.

The fact that sea ice still shows seasonal recovery during winters means there is still the opportunity to protect it through working towards net zero and limiting global warming.

With increasingly sophisticated satellite missions and models, multi-agency projects and powerful movements pressing for change, we can adapt and protect our changing planet.

Featured image credit: Amy Swiggs

What lies beneath the surface of Antarctic Ocean – watch our latest fieldwork video

In May 2025, CPOM Director for Knowledge Exchange, Sammie Buzzard (Northumbria University), joined a team from BIOPOLE, led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), on the RSS Sir David Attenborough, conducting research in the Southern Antarctic Ocean.

BIOPOLE – is a collaborative long-term science programme examining Biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functions in changing polar ecosystems and their impacts.

It was the latest the ship had been to the Southern Ocean. The team’s mission was to look at the ocean water and the dissolved nutrients present at this time of year. This was an exciting prospect as no UK research team had looked at this so deep into winter before.

The team took water samples and tested it in their on-ship lab. They were surprised how much life was still thriving so far south in the winter, despite the lack of daylight and the cold. There were whales, seals, penguins and vast swarms of krill beneath the ocean’s surface which was picked up by acoustic sensors.

BIOPOLE is investigating how the nutrients found in polar oceans are driving the Earth’s global carbon cycle.

The Earth’s Carbon Cycle

The Earth’s carbon cycle is how nature moves carbon around the Earth’s system. BIOPOLE is investigating how ‘nutrients’, such as carbon, nitrogen and phosphorous, found in polar oceans are helping to drive this global carbon cycle. These nutrients feed tiny marine plants called phytoplankton and, similar to vegetation on land, these plants absorb C02 from the ocean to perform photosynthesis. This reduces carbon in the atmosphere helping to regulate the Earth’s climate.

As the Earth’s ice melts, more of these nutrients are being added to the oceans. Understanding the process of this is important when trying to predict what the future might look like for the Earth’s carbon cycle as the ice continues to melt.

National Capability

BIOPOLE is a long-term, multi-centre National Capability programme, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). National Capability allows us to bring together skills, expertise and knowledge over decadal timescales to answer some of environmental science’s most pressing questions and challenges that affect the security and wellbeing of people within the UK and beyond. This includes understanding sea level rise and global weather patterns associated with a changing climate and how we can properly adapt to protect the places people live and work.

These scientific questions require the maintenance and development of long-term datasets so we can monitor trends and inform the models we use to project future scenarios, as well as expertise from a range of different scientific disciplines. National Capability science spans decades, enables step-changes in technology and scientific techniques, and makes a wider portfolio of UK-based science possible.

Led by BAS, BIOPOLE involves scientists from:
– The National Oceanography Centre (NOC)
– The UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (EKCEH)
– The British Geological Survey (BGS)
– And the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM).

CPOM’s role is to provide satellite information on how polar ice is melting into the oceans, using satellite missions such as the European Space Agency’s (ESA) CryoSat-2.

Watch our full-length case study film to find out more about the BIOPOLE programme or visit their website for more information.