From equations to ice sheets: how an interest in maths and physics led Dr Inès Otosaka to Antarctica and Greenland

Category: Sea Level Rise

From equations to ice sheets: how an interest in maths and physics led Dr Inès Otosaka to Antarctica and Greenland

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Dr Inès Otosaka is an Assistant Professor at Northumbria University in Newcastle. Her research focuses on using satellite and airborne altimetry data over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to detect and interpret changes in their elevation, volume, and mass and estimate their contribution to sea level rise.

She’s also had the chance to visit these incredible places, joining fieldwork expeditions in the Arctic and Antarctic.

At school she has no idea that this career in polar science lay ahead of her. It all started with a French Baccalauréat and a talent for maths and physics.

Yesterday, as part of Mars Day 2026, organised by STEM Learning, ESERO-UK, The European Space Agency and the UK Space Agency, she shared her experience of building a career in polar science with young people across the UK.

After her Baccalauréat (the equivalent of British A-Levels) she went on to Engineering School, where her studies broadened to include mechanics and computer science. The interdisciplinary nature of this study, including both maths and engineering, was excellent transferable experience that would prove useful in her career in climate science.

Everyone’s journey in science looks different. Inès’ included an internship in a factory, which gave her hands-on experience of how technical knowledge gets applied in practice, and her subsequent internship placed her in a research lab working on climate data from Argentinian vineyards. By working with real climate datasets like these, she discovered the kind of work she wanted to do.

Inès continued her academic studies, pursuing a Master’s of Science in The Built Environment, during which she studied remote sensing, spatial statistics, and sustainability. She also took on an internship in sea ice detection using satellite data at the KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) which was her first real encounter with the cryosphere (the frozen parts of our planet).

From there, a PhD in Earth Observation followed, and then a CPOM Research Fellowship in land ice earth observation.

Today, Inès leads the IMBIE team, a collaboration of international scientists who have reconciled three decades of satellite measurements to provide the world’s most authoritative estimates of ice sheet mass balance and sea level rise contributions. She also leads on the ESA-funded CryoTipping project which combines satellite observations with ice sheet modelling to detect marine ice sheet instability in Antarctica.

This work helps answer some of the most pressing questions in climate science: how much are the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets contributing to rising sea levels and when might we reach tipping points in the Antarctic? These are questions which affect all of us, now and in the future.
Inès career path included engineering school, a factory floor, and a gradual move towards remote sensing and climate science. This led to her becoming a leading scientist in Earth Observation, teaching other young people with an interest in climate science through her work as an Assistant Professor. It’s a job she’s passionate about – “now I know why studying maths was so important – it’s led me to a job I love!” – she said as part of the presentation.

If you’re good at maths or physics and wondering where it might take you, the answer could be somewhere you haven’t considered yet. Ice sheets, satellites, sea level rise – it’s a long way from the classroom, but the journey can start with the subjects you enjoy at school.

Find out more about STEM UK and Mars Day 26.

The future of the Antarctic Peninsula

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Scientists from across the world have come together to predict future scenarios for the Antarctic Peninsula, and the results are startling.

The Antarctic Peninsula is warming faster than the global average and is experiencing more extreme temperature and weather events. Sea ice is in decline, glaciers are melting , and ice shelves, which act as a “safety band” to the glaciers on land, are at risk. Land ice retreat in Antarctica will result in sea level rise and destruction of ecosystems, but what exactly are the best case and worst-case scenarios for the region and the planet?

In this new paper published today (20.02.2026) in Frontiers in Environmental Science, Antarctic scientists from across the globe have come together to review available data to produce three future projections based on carbon emission scenarios.

About the research

Led by Professor Bethan Davies (Newcastle University) with co-authors including CPOM PI of Land Ice/Ice Shelf Earth Observation Professor Alison Banwell (Northumbria University) and CPOM Associate Investigator: Ice Sheet Modelling Professor Tamsin Edwards (KCL), the study brought together data from a range of sources including fresh analysis of Earth Observation data, data from the modelling intercomparison projects CMIP6 and ISMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016; Seroussi et al., 2020), as well as published research to produce projections for three different future emission scenarios and their impact on 8 environmental aspects of the Antarctic Peninsula including marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land ice, sea ice, ice shelves, the Southern Ocean, the atmosphere, and extreme weather events.

What do the projections say?

Highest emission scenario: 4 .4 °C global temperature rise compared to preindustrial levels by 2100.

Temperature rises at this level will result in an increased number of days when the air temperature is above 0 °C which will result in significant ocean warming and more intense extreme weather events such as ocean heat waves and atmospheric rivers.

The Peninsula will see increased melt on both beneath and on the surfaces of ice shelves, with surface melting reducing the snow’s ability to absorb meltwater, allowing more meltwater ponding.

The Larsen C and Wilkins ice shelves are likely to collapse by 2100 CE under this scenario. Collapse of George VI Ice Shelf by 2300 would substantially contribute to sea level rise, as the land ice it currently holds back would accelerate into the ocean.

Under this very high emissions scenario, the Antarctic Peninsula could contribute just under 1 centimetre to global sea-level rise by 2100, rising to more than 11 centimetres by 2300.

Lower emissions scenario: 1.8 °C global temperature rise compared to preindustrial levels by 2100.
Under this scenario the team discuss how the Antarctic Peninsula’s sea ice remains similar to present and land ice is predicted to undergo only minor grounding line recession and thinning.

Changes in sea surface temperatures and the change from snow to rain will however impact marine and terrestrial ecosystems. One example will be the reduction or migration of krill, a key food source for whales and penguins.

Under a low emissions scenario, contributions from the Antarctic Peninsula remain limited, reaching just under 1 centimetre by 2100 and around 2 centimetres by 2300 – far lower than under a high emissions pathway.

Conclusion

The report is clear. Limiting global temperature rise to below 2 °C, ideally as close as possible to 1.5 °C, and governing the region effectively, will improve outcomes for the Antarctic Peninsula with only modest changes being seen there. Higher emission scenarios will result in severe changes which will be irreversible during human timescales, resulting in sea level rise and ecosystem destruction.

Professor Alison Banwell (Northumbria University), who led the ice shelves section of this paper said:

“Antarctic ice shelves act as critical buffers against sea-level rise, yet their future remains highly uncertain. They can appear stable for decades before collapsing rapidly once key structural or climatic thresholds are crossed, making these events difficult to capture in models.”

“What this study shows is that the future of the Antarctic Peninsula – including its ice shelves – depends strongly on the emissions pathway we follow. Under lower emissions, many of these systems remain stressed but largely intact; under higher emissions, we cross thresholds that lead to irreversible change.”

“The Antarctic Peninsula is already responding to climate change, but our study shows that decisions made in the coming decades will be crucial in terms of shaping its ice, ecosystems, and contribution to sea-level rise for centuries to come.”

What is CMIP6 and IMSIP6

CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) is a framework that coordinates climate modelling efforts worldwide, bringing together modelling groups to run standardized climate simulations that can be compared and analysed collectively. ISMIP is the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP, which is a framework bringing together international ice sheet models and coupled ice sheet-climate models to fully explore the sea level rise contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. CPOM incorporates their BISICLES model into the ISMIP framework of intercomparisons, and also supported analysis of the ISMIP6 model ensembles providing robust projections of potential sea level rise for the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report, published in 2021.

Paper information

Paper title – The Antarctic Peninsula under present day climate and future low, medium-high and very high emissions scenarios

Published in: Frontiers in Environmental Science

Lead author Bethan J. Davies (Newcastle University)
Co-authors – Angus Atkinson (Plymouth Marine Laboratory), Alison F. Banwell (University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Northumbria University, UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling), Mark Brandon (Open University), Thomas Caton Harrison (BAS), Peter Convey (British Antarctic Survey, University of Johannesburg/Millennium Institute, Biodiversity of Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Ecosystems (BASE)/University of Birmingham), Jan De Rydt (Northumbria University), Klaus Dodds (WWF-UK/ Royal Holloway University of London/Middlesex University), Rod Downie (WWF-UK) Tamsin L. Edwards (KCL), Ella Gilbert (BAS), Bryn Hubbard (Aberystwyth University), Kevin A. Hughes (BAS), Gareth J. Marshall (BAS), Andrew Orr (BAS), Joeri Rogelj (Imperial College London/International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg), Hélène Seroussi (Dartmouth College), Martin Siegert (University of Exeter) Julienne Stroeve (University of Manitoba/Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), University College London), and Jane Rumble (Polar Regions Department, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office).

Citation:

Davies BJ, Atkinson A, Banwell AF, Brandon M, Caton Harrison T, Convey P, De Rydt J, Dodds K, Downie R, Edwards TL, Gilbert E, Hubbard B, Hughes KA, Marshall GJ, Orr A, Rogelj J, Seroussi H, Siegert M, Stroeve J and Rumble J (2026) The Antarctic Peninsula under present day climate and future low, medium-high and very high emissions scenarios. Front. Environ. Sci. 13:1730203. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1730203

News Story Image Credit: Professor Alison Banwell (Northumbria University)

Climate tipping points in the news

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

What are tipping points?

Climate tipping occurs when warming temperatures push parts of the Earth system past critical thresholds, triggering self-reinforcing changes that become difficult or impossible to reverse. Crossing these thresholds will lead to major changes in sea level, ocean circulation, and weather patterns, changes that governments and international agencies need to anticipate and plan for. That’s why monitoring for early warning signs of tipping is crucial.

Tipping points in the news

Recent headlines have focused on the first major climate system to tip into irreversible decline– coral reefs. Scientists confirmed in research published this year that warm-water coral reefs have crossed their thermal tipping point and are experiencing unprecedented, widespread decline.

Other tipping points currently making headlines include:

  • AMOC/Gulf Stream collapse – a shutdown of this ocean circulation system would cause changes to global weather patterns, potentially causing northwest Europe to experience more severe winters while disrupting monsoons and food security worldwide.
  • Weakening carbon sinks – forests and oceans that normally absorb some of the human-made CO2 emissions are becoming less effective, accelerating atmospheric warming.
  • Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet collapse – an irreversible retreat, which, when initiated, would cause metres of additional sea level rise

Focus on the ice sheets

The collapse of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets presents a serious threat. Their collapse would commit us to metres of sea level rise affecting hundreds of millions globally.

But what are the key instabilities scientists are concerned about?

In this article in The Conversation, CPOM Co-Director for Science Dr Inès Otosaka (Northumbria University) explores the three ice sheet instabilities that could trigger collapse and rapid melting:

  • Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI)
  • Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI)
  • Surface Elevation Melt Instability (SEMI)

Inès leads the ESA CryoTipping project with Earth Observation experts from ESA’s Antarctic CCI+ Project and ice sheet modelling experts from Northumbria’s Future of Ice on Earth Peak of Research Excellence, PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) and MPI-GEA (Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology) combining satellite observations with ice sheet modelling to detect marine ice sheet instability at Thwaites glacier in Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea Sector. By feeding satellite data on grounding line location, ice velocity, and surface elevation into ice sheet models, the team aims to detect early warning signs of tipping points and investigate potential irreversibility of the retreat of the Thwaites glacier.

Using Creativity to Connect People with Space-Based Climate Science

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Earth is losing more than a trillion tonnes of ice each year – enough to create an ice cube more than 10km high.

How do we know this?

Satellites like ESA’s CryoSat-2 mission collect crucial climate data from hundreds of miles above Earth.

Once of the challenges we face is how do we make data from space feel real for people on the ground.

Climate change and the research behind it can often feel distant and abstract, but the impacts are immediate and global.

That’s why researchers, space agencies and climate change organisations are getting creative, transforming complex information into experiences that resonate with people outside the scientific community and inspire action from Governments and government agencies.

This International Day of Climate Action, we’re sharing some of the ways that creativity has been used to share environmental science stories in 2025.

Visual storytelling from space

ESA, with Planetary Visions, have partnered to create videos that visualise the research carried out by the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling and other research groups.

Here are some examples:

This animation, featuring research led by CPOM PhD Researcher Nitin Ravinder, shows the thinning of the Greenland ice sheet between 2010 and 2023.

Video Credit: ESA / Planetary Visions / CPOM

And this animation shows something surprising discovered by CPOM Researchers from Lancaster University this year – a subglacial flood bursting through the ice sheet.

Video Credit: ESA/CPOM/Planetary Visions

Stepping inside a year’s worth of ice loss: The Giant Ice Cube

How much ice is a trillion tonnes? CPOM created a 3D, explorable model to help answer this question.

Dr Tom Slater’s research has been transformed into an interactive experience that has travelled across the country, letting school children ‘step into’ a year’s worth of ice loss.

Of those surveyed at our outreach events 85% said they learned something new and 56% said they would consider becoming polar scientists.

Watch this video about why science outreach work is inspiring the next generation of environmental scientists.

Video: CPOM

Using poetry and art to bring science to life

ESA collaborated with artist Jamie Perera to create a multi-sensory installation that transforms satellite data into art. Using poetry penned by ESA’s Peter Bickerton and sonification (turning data into sound) the installation at this year’s Living Planet Symposium shares the science behind the EarthCARE Earth Explorer satellite mission, which gathers data on clouds and aerosols.

Video: ESA

Hear more from Peter Bickerton on how ESA uses creativity to share their science and why this is important

In this short interview, Peter Bickerton, talks about how he uses creativity to tap into people’s imaginations while sharing crucial climate and environmental data derived from earth explorer satellites.

Video credit: CPOM

Bonus: We also have a video of Peter’s 15-year anniversary poem about one of our favourite satellites CryoSat-2!

Video credit: CPOM

Behind the scenes on scientific fieldwork

Some of the most compelling climate science happens in the world’s most remote places where most people will never visit.

That’s why CPOM and programmes like BIOPOLE, led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) bring the Arctic and Antarctic to audiences through video content.

In this video filmed aboard RSS Sir David Attenborough, viewers get to see the science in action.

National Capability science like this spans decades of monitoring and measuring, but these glimpses behind the scenes remind us that climate data comes from real people doing remarkable work in extreme conditions.

Video: CPOM

A castle becomes a canvas

This November, CPOM PhD researcher Diego Moral Pombo in partnership with photographer and media specialist James Hooton, will transform Lancaster Castle into a stunning polar science showcase.

Their light installation projected onto Lancaster Castle’s historic John O’Gaunt Gate will bring ice sheets and glaciers to life, visualizing the hidden dynamics happening deep beneath the ice.

By placing climate science in a public place, the installation will invite visitors to the Light Up Lancaster festival to consider how the Earth’s ice sheets are changing, and why.

From research to action

The satellite data shows that Earth’s ice is melting, but data alone rarely inspires action. By transforming complex satellite observations into giant ice cubes, poetry, art installations, and visual stories help people understand that climate change is happening now, is measurable from space, and is affecting communities worldwide.

This International Day of Climate Action, we’re reminded that inspiring climate action requires both science and imaginative communication.

When the science community makes space-based climate data tangible, accessible and engaging, we empower everyone, from schoolchildren to policymakers to understand the challenge, and be part of the solution.

Spotlight on Space: Inspiring the next generation of polar scientists with CPOM

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Video: CPOM

On Saturday 4 October 2025, the UK Centre for Polar Observation (CPOM) joined teams from other companies, universities and science centres at the International Centre for Life, in Newcastle upon Tyne, for their ‘Spotlight on…’ Day.

This year the focus was ‘Space’, one of our favourite topics.

Introducing polar science to young people

During the day we got the chance to meet more than 100 children and their families, all fascinated with space science and wanting to learn more. We had an array of activities ready for them, including polar science inspired puzzles and colouring activities to introduce them to the sort of animals that live in the Arctic and Antarctica. You can find these, and links to other educational resources, on this webpage.

We also introduced them to ESA’s CryoSat-2 and ESA’s ‘Paxi’ mascot, explaining how we use satellites like CryoSat-2 and NASA’s ICESat-2 to monitor the polar regions from space to see what’s happening there. We took along our ice cube tent, an incarnation of the giant ESA ice cube you can see in this video, to help the children understand how much of the ice is melting each year.

About the cube

The cube is a scale model of how much ice is lost on Earth every year if you put it all in one giant ice cube. In real life this cube of ice would be 10 cubic km in size and 1 trillion tonnes in weight! This version of the cube is only 1 cubic meter, so children can interact with it, climbing inside to meet some of the polar animals. We explained to them that the ‘real’ ice cube would be a billion times bigger than our model. The sides of the cube show exactly where the ice is melting and the volume in gigatonnes.

About the science behind the cube

CPOM is a lead partner on ESA’s Antarctic CCI (Climate Change Initiative) project which develops methods for producing long-term and reliable climate data records of Antarctica from satellite observations. CPOM also provides scientific leadership for the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE), a community effort to reconcile satellite estimates of sea level contribution due to ice loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. You can read more about these, and other CPOM projects, on our Projects page.

The importance of sharing our science

As Ben Rutherford-Orrock, Contemporary Science Manager, mentions in our case study video:

“Science is all about asking questions and trying to work out the answers. That could be in solving some of the biggest problems we have in the world. Some of these questions are going to take time. If we are looking at how to answer some of these questions we are going to need the next generation of scientists, technologists, engineers and maths professionals. By making science accessible we can encourage young people to think about science as a potential career for the future.”

CPOM Director for Knowledge Exchange Dr Sammie Buzzard (Northumbria University) continues:

“It’s really important for everyone to know about the science we do here at CPOM because it has implications for the whole planet. We are looking at how our polar regions are changing and where the ice is melting. This can have implications for sea level rise which is going to affect everywhere with a coast and beyond.”

This year we have met around 500 children through outreach events like this.

Of those surveyed at all of these events in 2025:

85% reported learning something new about polar science.

56% said they would consider becoming a polar scientist in the future.

We look forward to continuing to inspire the next generation of polar scientists in 2026 and beyond.

Satellite data helps reveal a hidden world beneath the Antarctic ice sheet

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

A team of researchers, led by the University of Leeds and comprising CPOM scientists, has discovered 85 previously unknown subglacial lakes hidden beneath the Antarctic ice sheet.

Buried deep under the surface of the ice, subglacial lakes offer a unique insight into how meltwater moves underneath the ice sheet.

The paper, published today in Nature Communications, increases the number of known subglacial lakes to 231 and details five new connected lake networks and drainage pathways.

Leveraging 10 years of Cryosat-2 data

The study, led by Sally Wilson (University of Leeds), used ten years of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) CryoSat-2 mission, to observe changes in ice sheet elevation indicating the filling and draining of subglacial lakes, locating and mapping them as they evolve over time.

Understanding what’s happening beneath ice sheets is important in understanding how they respond to and impact the environment around them, including the ocean. The information can then be considered in ice sheet modelling, which is crucial for projecting future behaviour of ice sheets, how meltwater at the base enters the oceans, and sea level rise.

Antarctic subglacial lake inventory CREDIT ESA (Data source: Wilson, S. et al., 2025) 

How do subglacial lakes form?

Geothermal heat and friction created by hundreds of metres of ice sliding over the Earth’s bedrock creates pools of meltwater at the ice sheet base. Some of these lakes are ‘active’, draining and refilling over time, while some don’t, remaining ‘stable’. Lake Vostok is the largest known subglacial lake with enough water to overflow the Grand Canyon and is thought to be stable. Draining of ‘stable’ lakes like Lake Vostok could have a considerable impact on the ice sheet, how it might drain, and therefore the circulation systems of surrounding oceans and sea level rise.

The team was led by Sally F. Wilson (University of Leeds) and included Anna E. Hogg (University of Leeds) Richard Rigby (University of Leeds) Noel Gourmelen (University of Edinburgh and CPOM Associate Investigator: Ice Sheet Modelling and Satellite InSAR) Isabel Nias (University of Liverpool and CPOM Principal Investigator: Glaciology) & Thomas Slater (Northumbria University/CPOM Research Fellow: Land Ice Earth Observation). 

Find out more

Wilson, S.F., Hogg, A.E., Rigby, R. et al. Detection of 85 new active subglacial lakes in Antarctica from a decade of CryoSat-2 data. Nat Commun 16, 8311 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63773-9

Read more about this story: ESA article

CPOM contributes to The European State of the Climate 2024 report

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

The European State of the Climate 2024 report, an annual report compiled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and implemented by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission, has been released today, showing Europe to be the fastest-warming continent in what was the hottest year on record for Europe.

This year, the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) contributed to the section on Trends in climate indicators.

The polar ice sheets, in Greenland and Antarctica, store a significant proportion of the Earth’s freshwater. When they melt, they contribute this freshwater to the oceans, not only increasing sea levels, but also affecting ocean circulation. Estimates of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets mass balance produced by IMBIE, an international collaboration of polar scientists led by CPOM and supported by the space agencies ESA and NASA, are used in this report’s key climate indicator on Ice Sheets.

Since the 1970s, there has been a recorded ice loss of:

  • Greenland ice sheet: 6776 km3
  • Antarctic ice sheet: 5253 km3

Please see Figure 19.3 on page 89 of the report.

This report also includes an overview of the different components of The cryosphere, including glaciers, sea ice, and ice sheets and how they interact with each other and the Earth’s wider environment, impacting the climate. CPOM is part of C3S (the Copernicus Climate Services) Cryosphere Service, which is led by ENVEO IT GmbH (https://www.enveo.at).

The full report can be found on the Copernicus website.

NEW VIDEO: Celebrating International Women’s Day 2025

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

In 2024, we were very lucky to be able to catch up with women working in the field of Earth observation and modelling from across the world at the ESA/NASA Cryo2ice conference in Iceland.

Ahead of International Women’s Day 2025 coming up this Saturday, we gathered some of the perspectives shared with us on the importance of studying and understanding the Earth, what it’s like working in this area of science and why it’s important to share scientific understanding with the world- as well as encouraging words for women and girls thinking of pursuing a career in science.as well as encouraging words for women and girls thinking of pursuing a career in science.

Thank you to our interviewees for taking part in this video: CPOM Principal Investigator: Sea Ice Earth Observation, Rosemary Willatt (UCL), Anny Cazenave (LEGOS), CPOM Director for Knowledge Exchange, Sammie Buzzard (Northumbria University), Liza Wilson (University of Iceland/Fulbright Commission Iceland), Rachel Tilling (NASA), Bryony Freer (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) and Helen Fricker (Scripps Institute of Oceanography).

A special thanks must also go to the ESA and NASA Cryo2ice team, who facilitated many of the interviews included in this video.

New UK investment in an early warning system for climate tipping points

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

The UK’s Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA) has announced £81m of funding for an ambitious programme of work focused on ‘Forecasting Tipping Points’.

Environmental tipping points occur when warming temperatures lead to changes in the climate system which pass a threshold and become irreversible. Passing these points will lead to changes to sea level, ocean circulation and our weather, something world leaders need to plan for in advance. That’s why it’s vital to monitor for signs we are coming close to and passing these tipping points.

Combining observation and modelling expertise with innovative sensing systems, the programme aims to develop sensing systems for monitoring the Earth’s ice and oceans and place these systems in locations such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Subpolar Gyres (ocean circulation systems which sit under an area of constant low atmospheric pressure); both of which have been identified as crucial climate tipping points.

The programme will also look at developing improved models (computer simulations) to produce more robust and accurate predictions of these tipping points and the potential impact on the planet.

The programme is made up of 27 international teams of experts in climate science, maths, computer science, statistics, optics, photonics, and nuclear physics – bringing together this expertise to develop the best possible early warning system for these climate tipping points.

CPOM members are supporting three of these teams:

CryoWatch: Aims to progress the development of affordable, solar-powered, High Altitude Pseudo Satellites (HAPS), to be stationed in the stratosphere for persistent monitoring of polar regions. Led by Steve Tate (Voltitude), the team includes CPOM Co-Director of Science, Professor Mal McMillan.

OptimISM: A Next-Generation Framework for Ice Sheet Modelling. Led by Trystan Surawy-Stepney (University of Leeds), the team includes CPOM Principal Investigator: Land Ice Modelling, Dr Steph Cornford (University of Bristol).

PROMOTE: Progressing Earth System Modelling for Tipping Point Early Warning Systems. Led by Reinhard Schiemann (University of Reading and National Centre for Atmospheric Science), the team includes CPOM Principal Investigator: Land Ice Modelling, Dr Steph Cornford (University of Bristol).

To read more about these innovative projects visit ARIA’s website: https://www.aria.org.uk/opportunity-spaces/scoping-our-planet/forecasting-tipping-points/

Observing and modelling the Greenland ice sheet with CPOM

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Greenland is a fascinating and beautiful country, with a population of more than 50,000 people. It has long been a key area of focus for polar scientists, due to the importance of observing and modelling of changes to the Greenland ice sheet. This huge expanse of ice, the second largest land ice mass in the world, is more than 2000km in length, 1000km wide and at its thickest point is over 3km thick.

And this ice sheet is melting.

Melting ice sheets directly contribute water to the oceans, leading to sea level rise. This influx of cooler water also affects the ocean circulation, with implications for global weather patterns. Accurately tracking melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is essential to ensure people all over the world can prepare for the effects of climate change.

As ice sheets are so huge they are incredibly difficult to fully measure in person. Satellite measurements are the only ways we can accurately measure these vast areas.

CPOM has provided assessments of the amount of ice stored in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets since 2018, via the IMBIE Project (Ice Sheet Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise) which uses three decades of satellite data to assess the ice sheets. You can read their most recent report in Earth System Science Data from 2023, which estimates ice losses from these regions since 1992.

Another recent study from December 2024, led by CPOM PhD Researcher, Nitin Ravinder, and published in Geophysical Research Letters, showed that the Greenland ice sheet lost 2347 km3 of ice during the period since 2010 – which has contributed roughly ‘the amount of water stored in Africa’s Lake Victoria’ to the Earth’s oceans. Here’s an animation from Planetary Visions based on this study showing these changes in the Greenland ice sheet.

As sea level rise will affect many millions of people around the world, as well as the numerous at-risk species in coastal habitats, it’s vital that Governments and international bodies are able to plan for this rise. Computer modelling (simulations) is the only way we can accurately predict how the ice sheets might behave in the future.

CPOM provides UK National Capability research in ice sheet modelling, developing the BISICLES model.

BISICLES is a numerical model (simulation) that works with high resolution simulations around the margins of ice sheets (the grounding line), where interactions between the ice sheet and the ocean and atmosphere are the most complex. This is particularly useful when looking at the Greenland ice sheet.

Scientists from CPOM recently worked on combining this system as the ice sheet component within the UKESM (The UK Earth System Model), allowing us to better explore and understand the interactions between the ice sheets and the global ocean and atmospheric circulations (and providing evidence for IPCC reporting).

BISICLES has also been integrated into large international projects such as ISMIP (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project) to help project future changes to global sea levels, something that is particularly difficult to predict beyond the end of the century with one model alone.

The behaviour of the Greenland ice sheet is particularly difficult to predict, as over recent years we have seen points where melting has been more rapid than anticipated, but also points where it has been less than expected. We need to continually hone and improve computer simulations (or models) that can accurately predict how these ice sheets might behave in a rapidly warming planet to account for the complexity of the interactions between the ice sheets and the atmosphere in these regions.

Understanding this part of the world is vital for understanding how we might protect the rest of the Earth in the years to come. By combining expertise in land ice Earth observation with modelling simulations, like BISICLES, CPOM is continuing to increase the accuracy of future projections of sea level rise and weather changes, leading from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Image credit: Professor Andrew Shepherd