The European State of the Climate 2024 report, an annual report compiled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and implemented by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission, has been released today, showing Europe to be the fastest-warming continent in what was the hottest year on record for Europe.
This year, the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) contributed to the section on Trends in climate indicators.
The polar ice sheets, in Greenland and Antarctica, store a significant proportion of the Earth’s freshwater. When they melt, they contribute this freshwater to the oceans, not only increasing sea levels, but also affecting ocean circulation. Estimates of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets mass balance produced by IMBIE, an international collaboration of polar scientists led by CPOM and supported by the space agencies ESA and NASA, are used in this report’s key climate indicator on Ice Sheets.
Since the 1970s, there has been a recorded ice loss of:
Greenland ice sheet: 6776 km3
Antarctic ice sheet: 5253 km3
Please see Figure 19.3 on page 89 of the report.
This report also includes an overview of the different components of The cryosphere, including glaciers, sea ice, and ice sheets and how they interact with each other and the Earth’s wider environment, impacting the climate. CPOM is part of C3S (the Copernicus Climate Services) Cryosphere Service, which is led by ENVEO IT GmbH (https://www.enveo.at).
It is said that Ernest Shackleton advertised ‘men wanted’ for ‘hazardous journey, small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger’ ahead of his 1914 Antarctic expedition which ended in the loss of his ship. Back then polar exploration and research was seen as an exclusively male occupation, even though women had been involved since as early as the 19th century. Women were often formally blocked from joining expeditions to the Arctic and Antarctic.
Times have certainly changed since then. During the last century intrepid and tenacious women led the way in shattering this ice ceiling. Fast forward more than a century after Shackleton’s infamous advert to 2025 and women scientists are participating in and leading field research projects across the cryosphere.
The UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, brings together Earth Observation experts with modellers, to provide robust and accurate measurements of the Earth’s ice from the past and present, as well as projections for the future to help with world prepare for the changes a warming world might bring. Although we use satellite data in our work, Earth Observation often requires field-based observations to help verify satellite data, and so fieldwork is still an important piece of the puzzle when researching the polar regions, providing our scientists with wonderful opportunities to visit these incredible and rapidly changing environments.
DEFIANT (Drivers and Effects of Fluctuations in sea Ice in the ANTarctic) is a NERC project aimed at studying sea ice in the Southern Ocean and how it affects the wider climate system. CPOM’s Dr Inès Otosaka and Dr Isobel Lawrence and CPOM Director Professor Andrew Shepherd joined a fantastic team of scientists from BAS and DTU, to visit Antarctica to verify data collected on Antarctic sea ice by satellites.
Image credit: Professor Andrew Shepherd
Inès said (in this blog she wrote at the time) that ‘it was incredibly rewarding to see all the work that had been done over the months preceding the actual fieldwork come to fruition’. Although field work can be an exhausting experience, there was still time to enjoy the spectacular location with the team being ‘lucky enough to spot some penguins, seals, and even a pod of orcas.’
The team recorded this brilliant Iceworld podcast with BAS (British Antarctic Survey) – have a listen to their experiences on this incredible expedition.
Inès also joined Andrew Shepherd, PhD Researchers Amy Swiggs and Dr Anne Braakmann-Folgmann (former PhD Researcher) on the European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) Cryo2ice campaign to Greenland in 2022 where they collected ice cores, verified LiDAR measurements and collected snow depth measurements for snow density calculations. Amy wrote this blog about the fieldwork adventure, if you want to read more about this.
More recently in September 2024, Amy and Inès were also part of a CPOM team that visited Iceland to study proglacial lakes with a drone, alongside PhD Researcher Natasha Lee, CPOM Director for Knowledge Exchange Dr Sammie Buzzard, Andrew Shepherd, PhD Researcher, Nitin Ravinder and Data Scientist, Ben Palmer. We made this short film about this campaign, showing the team in action.
Image: CPOM PhD Researcher Natasha Lee, setting up a drone, on the Iceland Fieldwork campaign 2024.
Getting the opportunity to do fieldwork at an early career stage often draws people to polar science. For Dr Rosie Willatt (CPOM PI) the opportunity to visit Antarctica as a PhD student was a turning point in her career, and ultimately led to her becoming a polar scientist. You can hear more about how Rosie became a polar scientist in this video.
Sammie Buzzard, a glaciologist who started out studying maths, has been part of numerous fieldwork expeditions, including measuring glaciers in the Arctic during her PhD. She will soon be visiting the Antarctic in 2025.
She said “Although we are still far from gender equality within the polar sciences it’s fantastic to see opportunities becoming available to those of all genders that wouldn’t have been even during the earlier years of my lifetime”.
Image: CPOM’s Sammie Buzzard, preparing equipment on the Iceland Fieldwork Campaign, 2024.
These are just some of the examples of CPOM women scientists leading, and working on, these important fieldwork projects across the Arctic and Antarctica.
As we strive to understand these complex regions, how climate changes affect them and in turn how these changes will impact the rest of the planet in the years to come, it’s fantastic to see women scientists playing a vital role following the years of exclusion they experienced in previous centuries.
Greenland is a fascinating and beautiful country, with a population of more than 50,000 people. It has long been a key area of focus for polar scientists, due to the importance of observing and modelling of changes to the Greenland ice sheet. This huge expanse of ice, the second largest land ice mass in the world, is more than 2000km in length, 1000km wide and at its thickest point is over 3km thick.
And this ice sheet is melting.
Melting ice sheets directly contribute water to the oceans, leading to sea level rise. This influx of cooler water also affects the ocean circulation, with implications for global weather patterns. Accurately tracking melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is essential to ensure people all over the world can prepare for the effects of climate change.
As ice sheets are so huge they are incredibly difficult to fully measure in person. Satellite measurements are the only ways we can accurately measure these vast areas.
CPOM has provided assessments of the amount of ice stored in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets since 2018, via the IMBIE Project (Ice Sheet Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise) which uses three decades of satellite data to assess the ice sheets. You can read their most recent report in Earth System Science Data from 2023, which estimates ice losses from these regions since 1992.
Another recent study from December 2024, led by CPOM PhD Researcher, Nitin Ravinder, and published in Geophysical Research Letters, showed that the Greenland ice sheet lost 2347 km3 of ice during the period since 2010 – which has contributed roughly ‘the amount of water stored in Africa’s Lake Victoria’ to the Earth’s oceans. Here’s an animation from Planetary Visions based on this study showing these changes in the Greenland ice sheet.
As sea level rise will affect many millions of people around the world, as well as the numerous at-risk species in coastal habitats, it’s vital that Governments and international bodies are able to plan for this rise. Computer modelling (simulations) is the only way we can accurately predict how the ice sheets might behave in the future.
CPOM provides UK National Capability research in ice sheet modelling, developing the BISICLES model.
BISICLES is a numerical model (simulation) that works with high resolution simulations around the margins of ice sheets (the grounding line), where interactions between the ice sheet and the ocean and atmosphere are the most complex. This is particularly useful when looking at the Greenland ice sheet.
Scientists from CPOM recently worked on combining this system as the ice sheet component within the UKESM (The UK Earth System Model), allowing us to better explore and understand the interactions between the ice sheets and the global ocean and atmospheric circulations (and providing evidence for IPCC reporting).
BISICLES has also been integrated into large international projects such as ISMIP (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project) to help project future changes to global sea levels, something that is particularly difficult to predict beyond the end of the century with one model alone.
The behaviour of the Greenland ice sheet is particularly difficult to predict, as over recent years we have seen points where melting has been more rapid than anticipated, but also points where it has been less than expected. We need to continually hone and improve computer simulations (or models) that can accurately predict how these ice sheets might behave in a rapidly warming planet to account for the complexity of the interactions between the ice sheets and the atmosphere in these regions.
Understanding this part of the world is vital for understanding how we might protect the rest of the Earth in the years to come. By combining expertise in land ice Earth observation with modelling simulations, like BISICLES, CPOM is continuing to increase the accuracy of future projections of sea level rise and weather changes, leading from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
