Climate tipping points in the news

Category: Greenland

Climate tipping points in the news

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

What are tipping points?

Climate tipping occurs when warming temperatures push parts of the Earth system past critical thresholds, triggering self-reinforcing changes that become difficult or impossible to reverse. Crossing these thresholds will lead to major changes in sea level, ocean circulation, and weather patterns, changes that governments and international agencies need to anticipate and plan for. That’s why monitoring for early warning signs of tipping is crucial.

Tipping points in the news

Recent headlines have focused on the first major climate system to tip into irreversible decline– coral reefs. Scientists confirmed in research published this year that warm-water coral reefs have crossed their thermal tipping point and are experiencing unprecedented, widespread decline.

Other tipping points currently making headlines include:

  • AMOC/Gulf Stream collapse – a shutdown of this ocean circulation system would cause changes to global weather patterns, potentially causing northwest Europe to experience more severe winters while disrupting monsoons and food security worldwide.
  • Weakening carbon sinks – forests and oceans that normally absorb some of the human-made CO2 emissions are becoming less effective, accelerating atmospheric warming.
  • Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet collapse – an irreversible retreat, which, when initiated, would cause metres of additional sea level rise

Focus on the ice sheets

The collapse of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets presents a serious threat. Their collapse would commit us to metres of sea level rise affecting hundreds of millions globally.

But what are the key instabilities scientists are concerned about?

In this article in The Conversation, CPOM Co-Director for Science Dr Inès Otosaka (Northumbria University) explores the three ice sheet instabilities that could trigger collapse and rapid melting:

  • Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI)
  • Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI)
  • Surface Elevation Melt Instability (SEMI)

Inès leads the ESA CryoTipping project with Earth Observation experts from ESA’s Antarctic CCI+ Project and ice sheet modelling experts from Northumbria’s Future of Ice on Earth Peak of Research Excellence, PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) and MPI-GEA (Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology) combining satellite observations with ice sheet modelling to detect marine ice sheet instability at Thwaites glacier in Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea Sector. By feeding satellite data on grounding line location, ice velocity, and surface elevation into ice sheet models, the team aims to detect early warning signs of tipping points and investigate potential irreversibility of the retreat of the Thwaites glacier.

Using Creativity to Connect People with Space-Based Climate Science

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Earth is losing more than a trillion tonnes of ice each year – enough to create an ice cube more than 10km high.

How do we know this?

Satellites like ESA’s CryoSat-2 mission collect crucial climate data from hundreds of miles above Earth.

Once of the challenges we face is how do we make data from space feel real for people on the ground.

Climate change and the research behind it can often feel distant and abstract, but the impacts are immediate and global.

That’s why researchers, space agencies and climate change organisations are getting creative, transforming complex information into experiences that resonate with people outside the scientific community and inspire action from Governments and government agencies.

This International Day of Climate Action, we’re sharing some of the ways that creativity has been used to share environmental science stories in 2025.

Visual storytelling from space

ESA, with Planetary Visions, have partnered to create videos that visualise the research carried out by the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling and other research groups.

Here are some examples:

This animation, featuring research led by CPOM PhD Researcher Nitin Ravinder, shows the thinning of the Greenland ice sheet between 2010 and 2023.

Video Credit: ESA / Planetary Visions / CPOM

And this animation shows something surprising discovered by CPOM Researchers from Lancaster University this year – a subglacial flood bursting through the ice sheet.

Video Credit: ESA/CPOM/Planetary Visions

Stepping inside a year’s worth of ice loss: The Giant Ice Cube

How much ice is a trillion tonnes? CPOM created a 3D, explorable model to help answer this question.

Dr Tom Slater’s research has been transformed into an interactive experience that has travelled across the country, letting school children ‘step into’ a year’s worth of ice loss.

Of those surveyed at our outreach events 85% said they learned something new and 56% said they would consider becoming polar scientists.

Watch this video about why science outreach work is inspiring the next generation of environmental scientists.

Video: CPOM

Using poetry and art to bring science to life

ESA collaborated with artist Jamie Perera to create a multi-sensory installation that transforms satellite data into art. Using poetry penned by ESA’s Peter Bickerton and sonification (turning data into sound) the installation at this year’s Living Planet Symposium shares the science behind the EarthCARE Earth Explorer satellite mission, which gathers data on clouds and aerosols.

Video: ESA

Hear more from Peter Bickerton on how ESA uses creativity to share their science and why this is important

In this short interview, Peter Bickerton, talks about how he uses creativity to tap into people’s imaginations while sharing crucial climate and environmental data derived from earth explorer satellites.

Video credit: CPOM

Bonus: We also have a video of Peter’s 15-year anniversary poem about one of our favourite satellites CryoSat-2!

Video credit: CPOM

Behind the scenes on scientific fieldwork

Some of the most compelling climate science happens in the world’s most remote places where most people will never visit.

That’s why CPOM and programmes like BIOPOLE, led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) bring the Arctic and Antarctic to audiences through video content.

In this video filmed aboard RSS Sir David Attenborough, viewers get to see the science in action.

National Capability science like this spans decades of monitoring and measuring, but these glimpses behind the scenes remind us that climate data comes from real people doing remarkable work in extreme conditions.

Video: CPOM

A castle becomes a canvas

This November, CPOM PhD researcher Diego Moral Pombo in partnership with photographer and media specialist James Hooton, will transform Lancaster Castle into a stunning polar science showcase.

Their light installation projected onto Lancaster Castle’s historic John O’Gaunt Gate will bring ice sheets and glaciers to life, visualizing the hidden dynamics happening deep beneath the ice.

By placing climate science in a public place, the installation will invite visitors to the Light Up Lancaster festival to consider how the Earth’s ice sheets are changing, and why.

From research to action

The satellite data shows that Earth’s ice is melting, but data alone rarely inspires action. By transforming complex satellite observations into giant ice cubes, poetry, art installations, and visual stories help people understand that climate change is happening now, is measurable from space, and is affecting communities worldwide.

This International Day of Climate Action, we’re reminded that inspiring climate action requires both science and imaginative communication.

When the science community makes space-based climate data tangible, accessible and engaging, we empower everyone, from schoolchildren to policymakers to understand the challenge, and be part of the solution.

Spotlight on Space: Inspiring the next generation of polar scientists with CPOM

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Video: CPOM

On Saturday 4 October 2025, the UK Centre for Polar Observation (CPOM) joined teams from other companies, universities and science centres at the International Centre for Life, in Newcastle upon Tyne, for their ‘Spotlight on…’ Day.

This year the focus was ‘Space’, one of our favourite topics.

Introducing polar science to young people

During the day we got the chance to meet more than 100 children and their families, all fascinated with space science and wanting to learn more. We had an array of activities ready for them, including polar science inspired puzzles and colouring activities to introduce them to the sort of animals that live in the Arctic and Antarctica. You can find these, and links to other educational resources, on this webpage.

We also introduced them to ESA’s CryoSat-2 and ESA’s ‘Paxi’ mascot, explaining how we use satellites like CryoSat-2 and NASA’s ICESat-2 to monitor the polar regions from space to see what’s happening there. We took along our ice cube tent, an incarnation of the giant ESA ice cube you can see in this video, to help the children understand how much of the ice is melting each year.

About the cube

The cube is a scale model of how much ice is lost on Earth every year if you put it all in one giant ice cube. In real life this cube of ice would be 10 cubic km in size and 1 trillion tonnes in weight! This version of the cube is only 1 cubic meter, so children can interact with it, climbing inside to meet some of the polar animals. We explained to them that the ‘real’ ice cube would be a billion times bigger than our model. The sides of the cube show exactly where the ice is melting and the volume in gigatonnes.

About the science behind the cube

CPOM is a lead partner on ESA’s Antarctic CCI (Climate Change Initiative) project which develops methods for producing long-term and reliable climate data records of Antarctica from satellite observations. CPOM also provides scientific leadership for the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE), a community effort to reconcile satellite estimates of sea level contribution due to ice loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. You can read more about these, and other CPOM projects, on our Projects page.

The importance of sharing our science

As Ben Rutherford-Orrock, Contemporary Science Manager, mentions in our case study video:

“Science is all about asking questions and trying to work out the answers. That could be in solving some of the biggest problems we have in the world. Some of these questions are going to take time. If we are looking at how to answer some of these questions we are going to need the next generation of scientists, technologists, engineers and maths professionals. By making science accessible we can encourage young people to think about science as a potential career for the future.”

CPOM Director for Knowledge Exchange Dr Sammie Buzzard (Northumbria University) continues:

“It’s really important for everyone to know about the science we do here at CPOM because it has implications for the whole planet. We are looking at how our polar regions are changing and where the ice is melting. This can have implications for sea level rise which is going to affect everywhere with a coast and beyond.”

This year we have met around 500 children through outreach events like this.

Of those surveyed at all of these events in 2025:

85% reported learning something new about polar science.

56% said they would consider becoming a polar scientist in the future.

We look forward to continuing to inspire the next generation of polar scientists in 2026 and beyond.

Subglacial flood bursts through Greenland ice sheet

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Video Credit: ESA/CPOM/Planetary Visions

Evidence of a flood bursting through the Greenland ice sheet has been detailed in research published today (30.7.2025) in the journal Nature Geoscience and further illustrated in this animation produced by Planetary Visions.

The team of researchers, led by CPOM PhD Researcher Jade Bowling and CPOM Co-Director for Science Professor Malcolm McMillan (Lancaster Environment Centre), studied the sudden draining of a recently detected lake under the Greenland ice sheet (subglacial lake), using European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA satellite data and 3D simulations from the ArcticDEM project.

Their studies revealed that 90 million cubic meters of water burst through the ice leaving a huge crater (85m deep) across a 2 km2 area of the ice sheet. Further downstream they found hundreds of thousands of square metres of fractured ice and 25m high ice blocks where the flood had drained.

This evidence of meltwater flowing upwards from base to surface has overturned previous assumptions that meltwater only flows in the opposite direction. This, combined with previous ice sheet model predictions that the ice bed in this region was frozen has led the team to propose that fracturing of the ice created the pressure to forge a path for the water to flow through.

These new mechanisms have not been incorporated into the models that we use to project future behaviour of ice sheets in a warming climate, further emphasising that better understanding of the complex hydrological processes beneath the ice surface is vital if we are to prepare for continued, increased melting of the ice sheets in the coming decades.

Information we derive from satellite missions, and the computer simulations of what is and might happen within and below the ice sheets, are hugely important in planning for sea level rise and other environmental and weather changes associated with an evolving climate, to protect people, infrastructure and habitats.

Lead author Dr Jade Bowling, who led this work as part of her PhD at Lancaster University, said:

“When we first saw this, because it was so unexpected, we thought there was an issue with our data. However, as we went deeper into our analysis, it became clear that what we were observing was the aftermath of a huge flood of water escaping from underneath the ice.

“The existence of subglacial lakes beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet is still a relatively recent discovery, and – as our study shows – there is still much we don’t know about how they evolve and how they can impact on the ice sheet system.

“Importantly, our work demonstrates the need to better understand how often they drain, and, critically, what the consequences are for the surrounding ice sheet.”

Professor Mal McMillan, Co-Director of the Centre of Excellence in Environmental Data Science at Lancaster University, and Co-Director of Science at the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, said:

“This research demonstrates the unique value of long-term satellite measurements of Earth’s polar ice sheets, which – due to their vast size – would otherwise be impossible to monitor.

“Satellites represent an essential tool for monitoring the impacts of climate change, and provide critical information to build realistic models of how our planet may change in the future. “This is something that all of us depend upon for building societal resilience and mitigating the impacts of climate change.”

Dr Amber Leeson, Reader in Glaciology at Lancaster University and an expert in ice sheet hydrology said:

“What we have found in this study surprised us in many ways. It has taught us new and unexpected things about the way that ice sheets can respond to extreme inputs of surface meltwater, and emphasised the need to better understand the ice sheet’s complex hydrological system, both now and in the future.

This research, led by Jade Bowling and Malcolm McMillan (Lancaster University) is a collaboration between:

Publication information

The research is detailed in the paper: ‘Outburst of a subglacial flood from the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet’.

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01746-9

Funding information

The research was primarily funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the European Space Agency (ESA).

Read more

Read more on the ESA website: https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/FutureEO/Greenland_subglacial_flood_bursts_through_ice_sheet_surface

Read more on the Lancaster University website: https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/news/huge-hidden-flood-bursts-through-the-greenland-ice-sheet-surface

News Story Image Credit: Image of Greenland (Not the study area) taken from above. Amy Swiggs / CPOM

CPOM contributes to The European State of the Climate 2024 report

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

The European State of the Climate 2024 report, an annual report compiled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and implemented by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission, has been released today, showing Europe to be the fastest-warming continent in what was the hottest year on record for Europe.

This year, the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) contributed to the section on Trends in climate indicators.

The polar ice sheets, in Greenland and Antarctica, store a significant proportion of the Earth’s freshwater. When they melt, they contribute this freshwater to the oceans, not only increasing sea levels, but also affecting ocean circulation. Estimates of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets mass balance produced by IMBIE, an international collaboration of polar scientists led by CPOM and supported by the space agencies ESA and NASA, are used in this report’s key climate indicator on Ice Sheets.

Since the 1970s, there has been a recorded ice loss of:

  • Greenland ice sheet: 6776 km3
  • Antarctic ice sheet: 5253 km3

Please see Figure 19.3 on page 89 of the report.

This report also includes an overview of the different components of The cryosphere, including glaciers, sea ice, and ice sheets and how they interact with each other and the Earth’s wider environment, impacting the climate. CPOM is part of C3S (the Copernicus Climate Services) Cryosphere Service, which is led by ENVEO IT GmbH (https://www.enveo.at).

The full report can be found on the Copernicus website.

BLOG: Women Scientists in the Cryosphere

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

It is said that Ernest Shackleton advertised ‘men wanted’ for ‘hazardous journey, small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger’ ahead of his 1914 Antarctic expedition which ended in the loss of his ship. Back then polar exploration and research was seen as an exclusively male occupation, even though women had been involved since as early as the 19th century. Women were often formally blocked from joining expeditions to the Arctic and Antarctic.

Times have certainly changed since then. During the last century intrepid and tenacious women led the way in shattering this ice ceiling. Fast forward more than a century after Shackleton’s infamous advert to 2025 and women scientists are participating in and leading field research projects across the cryosphere.

The UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, brings together Earth Observation experts with modellers, to provide robust and accurate measurements of the Earth’s ice from the past and present, as well as projections for the future to help with world prepare for the changes a warming world might bring. Although we use satellite data in our work, Earth Observation often requires field-based observations to help verify satellite data, and so fieldwork is still an important piece of the puzzle when researching the polar regions, providing our scientists with wonderful opportunities to visit these incredible and rapidly changing environments.

DEFIANT (Drivers and Effects of Fluctuations in sea Ice in the ANTarctic) is a NERC project aimed at studying sea ice in the Southern Ocean and how it affects the wider climate system. CPOM’s Dr Inès Otosaka and Dr Isobel Lawrence and CPOM Director Professor Andrew Shepherd joined a fantastic team of scientists from BAS and DTU, to visit Antarctica to verify data collected on Antarctic sea ice by satellites.

Image credit: Professor Andrew Shepherd

Inès said (in this blog she wrote at the time) that ‘it was incredibly rewarding to see all the work that had been done over the months preceding the actual fieldwork come to fruition’. Although field work can be an exhausting experience, there was still time to enjoy the spectacular location with the team being ‘lucky enough to spot some penguins, seals, and even a pod of orcas.’

The team recorded this brilliant Iceworld podcast with BAS (British Antarctic Survey) – have a listen to their experiences on this incredible expedition.

Inès also joined Andrew Shepherd, PhD Researchers Amy Swiggs and Dr Anne Braakmann-Folgmann (former PhD Researcher) on the European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) Cryo2ice campaign to Greenland in 2022 where they collected ice cores, verified LiDAR measurements and collected snow depth measurements for snow density calculations. Amy wrote this blog about the fieldwork adventure, if you want to read more about this.

More recently in September 2024, Amy and Inès were also part of a CPOM team that visited Iceland to study proglacial lakes with a drone, alongside PhD Researcher Natasha Lee, CPOM Director for Knowledge Exchange Dr Sammie Buzzard, Andrew Shepherd, PhD Researcher, Nitin Ravinder and Data Scientist, Ben Palmer. We made this short film about this campaign, showing the team in action.

Image: CPOM PhD Researcher Natasha Lee, setting up a drone, on the Iceland Fieldwork campaign 2024.

Getting the opportunity to do fieldwork at an early career stage often draws people to polar science. For Dr Rosie Willatt (CPOM PI) the opportunity to visit Antarctica as a PhD student was a turning point in her career, and ultimately led to her becoming a polar scientist. You can hear more about how Rosie became a polar scientist in this video.

Sammie Buzzard, a glaciologist who started out studying maths, has been part of numerous fieldwork expeditions, including measuring glaciers in the Arctic during her PhD. She will soon be visiting the Antarctic in 2025.

She said “Although we are still far from gender equality within the polar sciences it’s fantastic to see opportunities becoming available to those of all genders that wouldn’t have been even during the earlier years of my lifetime”.

Image: CPOM’s Sammie Buzzard, preparing equipment on the Iceland Fieldwork Campaign, 2024.

These are just some of the examples of CPOM women scientists leading, and working on, these important fieldwork projects across the Arctic and Antarctica.

As we strive to understand these complex regions, how climate changes affect them and in turn how these changes will impact the rest of the planet in the years to come, it’s fantastic to see women scientists playing a vital role following the years of exclusion they experienced in previous centuries.

Header image: Credit Professor Andrew Shepherd

Observing and modelling the Greenland ice sheet with CPOM

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Greenland is a fascinating and beautiful country, with a population of more than 50,000 people. It has long been a key area of focus for polar scientists, due to the importance of observing and modelling of changes to the Greenland ice sheet. This huge expanse of ice, the second largest land ice mass in the world, is more than 2000km in length, 1000km wide and at its thickest point is over 3km thick.

And this ice sheet is melting.

Melting ice sheets directly contribute water to the oceans, leading to sea level rise. This influx of cooler water also affects the ocean circulation, with implications for global weather patterns. Accurately tracking melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is essential to ensure people all over the world can prepare for the effects of climate change.

As ice sheets are so huge they are incredibly difficult to fully measure in person. Satellite measurements are the only ways we can accurately measure these vast areas.

CPOM has provided assessments of the amount of ice stored in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets since 2018, via the IMBIE Project (Ice Sheet Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise) which uses three decades of satellite data to assess the ice sheets. You can read their most recent report in Earth System Science Data from 2023, which estimates ice losses from these regions since 1992.

Another recent study from December 2024, led by CPOM PhD Researcher, Nitin Ravinder, and published in Geophysical Research Letters, showed that the Greenland ice sheet lost 2347 km3 of ice during the period since 2010 – which has contributed roughly ‘the amount of water stored in Africa’s Lake Victoria’ to the Earth’s oceans. Here’s an animation from Planetary Visions based on this study showing these changes in the Greenland ice sheet.

As sea level rise will affect many millions of people around the world, as well as the numerous at-risk species in coastal habitats, it’s vital that Governments and international bodies are able to plan for this rise. Computer modelling (simulations) is the only way we can accurately predict how the ice sheets might behave in the future.

CPOM provides UK National Capability research in ice sheet modelling, developing the BISICLES model.

BISICLES is a numerical model (simulation) that works with high resolution simulations around the margins of ice sheets (the grounding line), where interactions between the ice sheet and the ocean and atmosphere are the most complex. This is particularly useful when looking at the Greenland ice sheet.

Scientists from CPOM recently worked on combining this system as the ice sheet component within the UKESM (The UK Earth System Model), allowing us to better explore and understand the interactions between the ice sheets and the global ocean and atmospheric circulations (and providing evidence for IPCC reporting).

BISICLES has also been integrated into large international projects such as ISMIP (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project) to help project future changes to global sea levels, something that is particularly difficult to predict beyond the end of the century with one model alone.

The behaviour of the Greenland ice sheet is particularly difficult to predict, as over recent years we have seen points where melting has been more rapid than anticipated, but also points where it has been less than expected. We need to continually hone and improve computer simulations (or models) that can accurately predict how these ice sheets might behave in a rapidly warming planet to account for the complexity of the interactions between the ice sheets and the atmosphere in these regions.

Understanding this part of the world is vital for understanding how we might protect the rest of the Earth in the years to come. By combining expertise in land ice Earth observation with modelling simulations, like BISICLES, CPOM is continuing to increase the accuracy of future projections of sea level rise and weather changes, leading from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Image credit: Professor Andrew Shepherd