Observing and modelling the Greenland ice sheet with CPOM

Category: Antarctic

Observing and modelling the Greenland ice sheet with CPOM

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Greenland is a fascinating and beautiful country, with a population of more than 50,000 people. It has long been a key area of focus for polar scientists, due to the importance of observing and modelling of changes to the Greenland ice sheet. This huge expanse of ice, the second largest land ice mass in the world, is more than 2000km in length, 1000km wide and at its thickest point is over 3km thick.

And this ice sheet is melting.

Melting ice sheets directly contribute water to the oceans, leading to sea level rise. This influx of cooler water also affects the ocean circulation, with implications for global weather patterns. Accurately tracking melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is essential to ensure people all over the world can prepare for the effects of climate change.

As ice sheets are so huge they are incredibly difficult to fully measure in person. Satellite measurements are the only ways we can accurately measure these vast areas.

CPOM has provided assessments of the amount of ice stored in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets since 2018, via the IMBIE Project (Ice Sheet Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise) which uses three decades of satellite data to assess the ice sheets. You can read their most recent report in Earth System Science Data from 2023, which estimates ice losses from these regions since 1992.

Another recent study from December 2024, led by CPOM PhD Researcher, Nitin Ravinder, and published in Geophysical Research Letters, showed that the Greenland ice sheet lost 2347 km3 of ice during the period since 2010 – which has contributed roughly ‘the amount of water stored in Africa’s Lake Victoria’ to the Earth’s oceans. Here’s an animation from Planetary Visions based on this study showing these changes in the Greenland ice sheet.

As sea level rise will affect many millions of people around the world, as well as the numerous at-risk species in coastal habitats, it’s vital that Governments and international bodies are able to plan for this rise. Computer modelling (simulations) is the only way we can accurately predict how the ice sheets might behave in the future.

CPOM provides UK National Capability research in ice sheet modelling, developing the BISICLES model.

BISICLES is a numerical model (simulation) that works with high resolution simulations around the margins of ice sheets (the grounding line), where interactions between the ice sheet and the ocean and atmosphere are the most complex. This is particularly useful when looking at the Greenland ice sheet.

Scientists from CPOM recently worked on combining this system as the ice sheet component within the UKESM (The UK Earth System Model), allowing us to better explore and understand the interactions between the ice sheets and the global ocean and atmospheric circulations (and providing evidence for IPCC reporting).

BISICLES has also been integrated into large international projects such as ISMIP (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project) to help project future changes to global sea levels, something that is particularly difficult to predict beyond the end of the century with one model alone.

The behaviour of the Greenland ice sheet is particularly difficult to predict, as over recent years we have seen points where melting has been more rapid than anticipated, but also points where it has been less than expected. We need to continually hone and improve computer simulations (or models) that can accurately predict how these ice sheets might behave in a rapidly warming planet to account for the complexity of the interactions between the ice sheets and the atmosphere in these regions.

Understanding this part of the world is vital for understanding how we might protect the rest of the Earth in the years to come. By combining expertise in land ice Earth observation with modelling simulations, like BISICLES, CPOM is continuing to increase the accuracy of future projections of sea level rise and weather changes, leading from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Image credit: Professor Andrew Shepherd

CPOM joins STEM Learning’s #POP24 Day

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

On Tuesday 12 November 2024, scientists from the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling took part in STEM Learning’s Protecting our Planet Day 2024, a fantastic day of live-streamed sessions from experts on what is being done to protect our planet from space, and on Earth.

More than 150,000 people, including classrooms full of interested teachers and pupils, joined to learn more about climate change and how they can pursue a career in STEM.

The event was presented by the UK Space Education Office (ESERO-UK) at STEM Learning, and in collaboration with the European Space Agency and the UK Space Agency. 

The full listings of sessions are available on STEM Learning’s Youtube Page.

Watch Professor Andy Shepherd and former CPOM Researcher Dr Anne Braakmann-Folgmann talk about Protecting the Ice…

Watch Dr Sammie Buzzard talking about Protecting our Planet with Maths…

Watch Dr Inès Otosaka talking about Protecting our Planet with Technology…

Planning for rapid and irreversible change in the future: CPOM awarded funding to investigate critical climate tipping points in Antarctica

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

The UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) has been awarded over £400,000 by the European Space Agency (ESA) to investigate tipping points in the Earth’s icy regions (the cryosphere), with a focus on the Antarctic.

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds that if crossed, can lead to rapid and irreversible changes in the climate system with dramatic consequences for our society. Crossing these points in the cryosphere has the potential to lead to much faster sea level rise as well as trigger other tipping points in the climate system, therefore it is of vital importance that scientists assess and attempt to understand where and when these tipping points might be crossed. This knowledge will help governments better prepare for the consequences of climate warming.

CPOM Co-Director for Science, Dr Inès Otosaka (Northumbria University) will be leading the ‘CryoTipping’ project with a team of Earth Observation experts from ESA’s Antarctic CCI+ Project and ice sheet modelling experts from Northumbria’s Future of Ice on Earth Peak of Research Excellence.

The research will build on datasets developed by ESA’s Antarctic CCI+ Project, and will combine Earth Observation and numerical modelling to detect marine ice sheet instability in the Amundsen Sea Sector, with a focus on Thwaites glacier.

Dr Otosaka said:

“Satellite observations have shown that the ice sheets have been melting more rapidly than previously thought whilst numerical models have demonstrated their sensitivity to future changes in their surrounding atmosphere and ocean. By combining state-of-the-art satellite observations and numerical modelling techniques, this exciting project will further our understanding of the trigger of instability mechanisms in Antarctica.”

Exploring the potential of using satellite data to detect early warning signs of marine ice sheet instability, the CryoTipping project will be the first to contrast present-day retreat rates of the Thwaites glacier measured from satellite data against those modelled over the past 20,000 years.

Dr Anna Maria Trofaier, Cryosphere Scientist at ESA (European Space Agency) said:

“That Thwaites Glacier is extremely vulnerable to climate change is known. The worry is that ongoing changes could result in a switch to a new state of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet with crucial consequences for sea level rise. If we want to understand the state of this tipping element we need to combine models with observations, and the European Space Agency’s satellite Earth Observation data are ideally placed to support this new project and its important work.”

The team aims to develop a new method to detect these tipping points by feeding satellite observations of grounding line location (where glaciers and ice shelves start to float), ice velocity, and surface elevation changes to an ice sheet model, investigating the onset and potential irreversibility of the retreat of Thwaites glacier over the coming centuries.

The project, funded by ESA and due to commence in early 2025, is led by CPOM (based at Northumbria University), in partnership with ice sheet modelling experts from Northumbria’s Future of Ice on Earth Peak of Research Excellence, PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) and MPI-GEA (Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology), and Earth Observation experts from ENVEO IT GmbH and DLR German Aerospace Center.

CPOM is a partnership of six universities and the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), based at Northumbria University, primarily funded by the National Environment Research Council (NERC) to provide national capability in observation and modelling of the processes that occur in the Polar regions of the Earth.

CPOM uses satellite observations to monitor change in the Polar regions and numerical models to better predict how their ice and oceans might evolve in the future. By providing long-term capabilities to the scientific community and leading international assessments, CPOM helps global policymakers plan for the effects of climate change and sea level rise.

Image credit: Andrew Shepherd

Recent research from CPOM and BAS shows record low Antarctic sea ice is four times more likely with climate change

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Last year (2023) winter Antarctic sea ice measured at its lowest since 1978 when satellite records began.

Using the CMIP6 data set (climate dataset), British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) researchers investigated this sea ice loss, including data from 18 different climate models in order to understand the likelihood of this level of sea ice loss, and its relationship to climate change.

The research, led by Rachel Diamond (Cambridge University/BAS) shows that this type of event would be a one- in-a-2000-year event without climate change. Using the most up-to-date models showed that this type of decline in sea is four times more likely (a one-in-a-500 year event), suggesting that climate change played a significant role, however this type of event still remains unlikely.

The paper by Diamond, R., et al was published on Monday 20 May 2024 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Recent research using ISMIP6 Model Ensemble

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

Ice sheet models (scientific simulations which aim to predict future behaviour of ice sheets) often disagree on the timing and magnitude of sea level rise up until 2300. For example, projections of Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise beyond 2100 remain highly uncertain due to processes such as Ice Sheet and Ice Cliff instability which could cause Antarctic melting to contribute more rapidly to sea level rise.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is an international effort using different climate models to better understand how the Earth’s climate system responds to various factors. ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), co-led by CPOM, is the part of CMIP6 project that examines the ice sheets, aiming to improve predictions of their future contribution to sea level rise, which is critical to assess the impact of melting ice on sea level rise, oceans currents, and weather patterns. By pulling together a range of different models, ISMIP6 supports the scientific community by producing more accurate, robust, multi-century projections of sea level rise and quantifying their associated uncertainties.

The most recent report using the ISMIP6 Model ensemble was released on Wednesday 4 September) in the AGU Earth’s Future journal. The new study (Seroussi et al). investigates the behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet until 2300 using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. This is the first multi-century, multi-model projections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution and shows that ice flow models are relatively consistent in predicting a limited Antarctic sea-level rise up until 2100. However, beyond the end of this century, Antarctica’s ice losses increase rapidly thereafter with the choice of ice flow model and different potential influential factors such as carbon emissions (known as climate forcing scenarios) becoming sources of uncertainty.

This model ensemble shows that, under high carbon emission scenarios, some simulations show high levels of ice retreat after 2100 with potential sea level rise of up to 1.7m in 2200 and 4.4 m by 2300. In particular, key regions in West Antarctica, including the Bungenstock Ice Rise, the Siple Coast and the Amundsen Sea sector are predicted to undergo rapid retreat. Results saw strong variations between models on the onset of retreat but good agreement on the pattern of retreat.

In addition to the choice of ice sheet model, this study also highlights the importance of the emission scenario, as ice losses under both low and high emissions remain similar during the 21st century, the two scenarios produce significantly varied results post 2100. This highlights the importance of reducing emissions for the future stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet as well as the importance of further work on developing and improving accurate and robust models of ice shelf retreat and potential collapse beyond 2100 so that policy makers and scientists can make decisions today which will protect the future of Antarctica beyond tomorrow.

Find out more about the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)

New £8.4M investment continues support for long-term polar science, co-led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and UK’s Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM)

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

£8.4M has been awarded to the British Antarctic Survey and the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling to deliver the next 5 years of their long-term polar science activities. The UK Polar Research Expertise for Science and Society (PRESCIENT) programme provides UK national capability (science, such as ongoing datasets and models, which underpins wider scientific research) to understand the impacts of environmental stressors, such as rising global temperatures on polar marine ecosystems. PRESCIENT will also measure and predict polar ice sheet contributions to global sea level rise and extend and improve measurements of changes to polar sea ice.

Announced today the funding is part of £101 million investment by the Natural Environment Research Council, part of UK Research and Innovation, in the UK’s network of leading environmental science research centres to support large-scale environmental observations, modelling and analysis, and research capabilities through innovations in platforms, sensors and data science. These data are crucial for managing natural resources, biodiversity, human health and building our understanding of and resilience to environmental hazards and climate change. It underpins science across the UK’s environmental research sector and supports critical scientific advice to government.

PRESCIENT will also aid the BAS transition to low carbon science delivery, by progressing delivery of airborne science using remotely piloted autonomous systems (RPAS), while delivering independent scientific advice and support to a range of stakeholders in government, business, and wider society, ensuring that our scientific activities and expertise is available to support solutions.

National capability is research funding which, unlike shorter term projects, can span decades and provides ongoing support for large-scale, complex scientific projects of national significance, informing strategic needs and decision-making of the country. Using techniques such as satellite altimetry to study ice motion and the polar oceans, CPOM incorporate the results into models used across the polar research community. CPOM’s data sets and models have been developed and maintained for almost a quarter of a century, and the long-term maintenance of this capability helps provide robust understanding and insights of the cryosphere.

CPOM also contribute to a range of interdisciplinary multi-centre National Capability research projects including CANARI, BIOPOLE, and TerraFIRMA, which have been running since 2022, offering satellite derived estimates of aspects of the cryosphere (such as ice thickness, floe size and sea height), as well as developing advanced simulations. The longevity of our datasets, and the accuracy of our models mean we have a broader view of past and possible future changes. By contributing to projects such as the previous multi-centre National Capability project UKESM (UK Earth System Model), integrating ice sheet model and advanced sea ice physics into the system, we can produce robust projections of ice sheet instability and Arctic sea ice loss, thereby informing sea level rise predictions. Our PRESCIENT programme with BAS continues this work into 2029.

This funding has been awarded from NERC’s National Capability Single Centre Science initiative, one of the UK’s largest environmental science investment programmes.

Read more on the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) website.

CPOM’s Dr Ines Otosaka gives evidence to the Environmental Audit Sub-Committee on Polar Research

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

CPOM co-Director Dr Ins Otosaka (Northumbria University) gave evidence yesterday to the Environmental Audit Sub-Committee on Polar Research as part of The UK and Antarctic Environment Enquiry.

The meeting, which took place at the House of Commons, also included evidence from scientists and Directors from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) as well as Durham University.

The Inquiry is exploring the effects of climate change in Antarctica and how UK science can play a role in understanding this change and protect the region. It also considers what the UK Government can do to meet their obligations under the Antarctic Treaty.

The Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling investigates processes in the earth’s cryosphere, including in Antarctica, using satellite observation data and numerical modelling. Through this CPOM aims to understand how Antarctica, and other aspects of the cryosphere, are changing and the potential impact of these changes on the global climate.

Dr Ins Otosaka is a lecturer at Northumbria University and her research focuses on using satellite and airborne altimetry data of the Antarctic and Greenland icesheets to detect and interpret changes and estimate their contribution to sea level rise.

You can watch the full hearing on Parliament TV.

CPOM’s Professor Andrew Shepherd and Dr Sammie Buzzard feature in POP23 video

Posted on by Nicola Bortun 

CPOM Director Prof Andrew Shepherd and CPOM Assistant Director Sammie Buzzard discuss the importance of protecting our polar regions and how we monitor them here at CPOM in this educational video from the Protecting Our Planet 2023 event run by Stem Learning.

European satellite ERS-2 returns to earth after almost 30 years

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

(First published: 22 Feb 2024)

This week we watched along with many across the globe, as pioneer European satellite ERS-2 finally made its journey back to earth after almost 30 years monitoring earth from the sky.

For many current and former CPOM scientists, this was an emotional moment, as the data from this satellite has made (and continues to make) an integral contribution to understanding the cryosphere. In fact, CPOM Director Professor Andrew Shepherd used ERS-2 data for his first paper 23 years ago ‘Inland Thinning of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica’ which used satellite altimetry and interferometry to show that the glacier ‘had thinned by up to 1.6 meters per year between 1992 and 1999’.

Part of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) earth observation programme, the revolutionary satellite was launched in April 1995 into a sun-synchronous polar orbit at an altitude of around 800 km, and was one of the most powerful and sophisticated satellites of its time.

Due to its three-axis stabilization it was able to point directly towards our planet and could observe most areas of the earth, using SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) to view land surfaces, polar ice and oceans, measuring ocean-surface temperature, sea winds and sea level changes via Radar Altimetry. On top of this it could also monitor ozone levels.

The data this satellite collected has been crucial in monitoring land surface changes, warming oceans, natural disasters, and importantly for the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling – monitoring diminishing polar ice and sea-level rise. ERS-2 (and it’s twin ERS-1 launched a few years prior) paved the way for other programmes including the EU Space program’s Copernicus Sentinels and ESA’s CryoSat Earth Explore Mission, both of which continue to provide vital data for CPOM’s research. In fact, we are using ERS-2 data to extend our datasets further back in time, in order to create a fuller view of the evolution of the cryosphere over the last 30 years.

It was retired in 2011 and has been de-orbiting since then. Now it’s 16-year journey home is complete, broken and burned up in the atmosphere with the remaining parts landing safely in the ocean yesterday but even though the physical entity is gone, the data it produced, having been used for thousands of scientific papers, continues to provide information for scientists at ESA, CPOM and beyond.

Image credit: ESA-SJM Photography esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2024/02/Saying_goodbye_to_ERS-2

Examining the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets and their impact on future sea level rise new research out now

Posted on by Nicola Bortun

New research states that future rises in sea level could be better estimated by gaining a clearer understanding of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.

Global climate change and its impact on sea levels is a pressing issue and trying to accurately predict just how much they will rise in future is subject to ongoing analysis. The changing nature of ice sheets is a vital factor in the projection of future sea level rise.

Led by the University of Lincoln and involving Dr Sammie Buzzard from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (Northumbria University), the paper was published today in the Nature journal, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.

An important aspect of the review highlights that short-term fluctuations in climate could have an amplification feedback effect, meaning that ice sheets are more sensitive to climate change than previously understood.

The research was sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate and Cryosphere project, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research.

The paper is available to read online: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment